NASCAR Cup Series Champion Betting Trends: Larson Lapping

With just a handful of regular-season races remaining, the NASCAR Cup Series championship picture is starting to take shape. Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Christopher Bell continue to draw betting attention, while line movement and handle percentages reveal where the public — and sharp money — is headed. Let’s break down the latest BetMGM odds and insights as the field narrows and postseason intensity ramps up.

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Line Movement: Larson & Elliott Narrowing the Gap

The market has responded to recent results, and two of NASCAR’s biggest names have seen odds tighten.

• Kyle Larson opened at +600 and now sits at +375, currently third in the Cup standings with 613 points, three wins, one pole, nine top-five finishes, and 12 top 10s. His consistency and dominance have made him a major betting focus.

• Chase Elliott, who ranks second in points with 619, has seen his odds shift from +1200 to +1000. Elliott boasts one win, six top fives, and 10 top 10s, keeping him firmly in the title conversation.

This movement shows oddsmakers adjusting quickly to strong midseason form — and bettors aren’t hesitating to follow the trends.

Highest Ticket%: Larson, Elliott, Bell Draw Bettors

Looking at ticket share gives insight into public sentiment:

• Kyle Larson leads the field with 10.8% of all championship bets.

• Chase Elliott follows with 7.8%.

• Christopher Bell closely trails at 7.7%, reflecting growing confidence in the Joe Gibbs Racing driver.

Bell (+500) sits sixth in the standings (565 points) and already has three wins, one pole, seven top fives, and 11 top 10s. Despite being just outside the top five in points, bettors clearly trust his race-winning upside.

Highest Handle%: Sharp Money Loves Larson & Bell

When it comes to total money wagered, the leaderboard shifts slightly toward sharp action:

• Kyle Larson again tops the chart with 17.2% of handle.

• Christopher Bell follows at 10.9%, showing that big-money bettors are confident in his playoff potential.

• Chase Elliott holds 8.2% of the handle, matching his ticket interest and proving steady trust from both public and pros alike.

These percentages not only reflect what bettors believe in — they also highlight BetMGM’s greatest exposures.

Biggest Liabilities: Larson, Cindric, Busch

Three names stand out as BetMGM’s biggest potential losses:

• Kyle Larson is a dual threat — he leads in both tickets and handle.

• Austin Cindric (+6000) is more of a surprise. Currently 18th in the standings with 389 points, Cindric has only one win, one top-five finish, and four top-10 finishes, yet oddsmakers are cautious.

• Kyle Busch, sitting 16th in points with 397, has posted two top fives and six top 10s. Despite 60/1 odds, enough action on Busch has made him a notable risk.

Whether it’s loyalty to veteran drivers or chasing longshot payouts, these bets are shaping BetMGM’s liability board.

Larson’s Market Surge, Bell’s Value, and Cindric’s Risk

Larson’s steady climb in both standings and odds has made him the sharpest bet in the market, while Bell continues to be a favorite among seasoned bettors looking for upside value. Meanwhile, Cindric’s status as a liability — despite modest results — suggests he’s become an unexpected wildcard in the title picture.

As the NASCAR postseason approaches, expect more movement in the markets. For now, BetMGM’s betting trends tell a clear story: the public loves Larson, the sharps respect Bell, and under-the-radar names like Cindric and Busch are shifting risk behind the scenes.