NASCAR Toyota Save Mart 350 Insights and Where to Watch

The NASCAR Cup Series heads into Sonoma for the Toyota Save Mart 350, and BetMGM’s odds, tickets, and handle percentages tell a compelling story for bettors. Let’s break down the biggest storylines behind Michael McDowell, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Shane van Gisbergen, Kyle Busch, and how they’re shaping the action this weekend.

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Date: Sunday, July 13, 2025

Time: 3:30 PM ET

Location: Sonoma Raceway – Sonoma, CA

Race Series: NASCAR Xfinity Series

Race Length: 110 laps (218.9 miles)

Where to Watch: TNT 

Where to Stream: HBO Max, NASCAR.com, FuboTV

Michael McDowell (+1100): Underdog With Surging Interest

Michael McDowell ranks 24th in the Cup Series standings but remains a fan-favorite underdog. He has secured one pole and one top-five finish this season, showcasing speed on road courses like Sonoma. Bettors are flocking to McDowell, with the highest ticket percentage (11.1%) and a matching 11.1% handle share — making him a significant liability for BetMGM if he pulls off the upset.

Kyle Larson (+600): Favorite to Repeat in Wine Country

Last year’s Toyota Save Mart 350 winner, Kyle Larson, enters Sonoma as the Cup Series leader. He’s already captured three wins, one pole, nine top-five finishes, and twelve top 10s this season. Bettors have plenty of faith in Larson’s road course dominance, with the second-highest ticket share (7.6%) and fifth-largest handle (3.9%). His current odds sit at +600 — the second shortest on the board — proving oddsmakers expect another big run.

Chris Buescher (+1300): Quiet Consistency Pays

Chris Buescher sits 15th in the standings and has quietly been one of the steadiest road course racers this season. He’s tallied three top-five finishes and ten top 10s overall, including three top 10s in just his last five starts. Buescher holds the third-highest ticket percentage (7.1%) and 6.6% of the handle, showing sharp money backing his consistent form.

Shane van Gisbergen (+125): Huge Sharp Money Backing

Shane van Gisbergen might be the sharpest bet of the weekend. Sitting 4th in the Cup standings with two wins, two poles, two top-five finishes, and three top 10s this season, the New Zealander dominates road circuits. His odds have tightened from +135 to +125, while an eye-popping 58% of the handle is backing him — despite only 5.7% of tickets. Bettors see serious value in his ability to conquer Sonoma’s twists.

Kyle Busch (+2500): Veteran Threat Despite Struggles

Kyle Busch ranks 19th in the Cup standings this year, with just two top fives and six top 10s to date. However, his road course pedigree still attracts money. Busch has 5.7% of total tickets and 4.5% of handle, marking him as one of BetMGM’s biggest liabilities if he turns things around on Sunday.

BetMGM Sportsbook Insights

Highest Ticket%

• Michael McDowell 11.1%
• Kyle Larson 7.6%
• Chris Buescher 7.1%

Highest Handle%

• Shane van Gisbergen 58.0%
• Michael McDowell 11.1%
• Chris Buescher 6.6%

Biggest Liabilities

• Michael McDowell
• Shane van Gisbergen
• Kyle Busch

The betting action for the Toyota Save Mart 350 shows Michael McDowell, Shane van Gisbergen, and Kyle Busch are the biggest liabilities for BetMGM this week. With sharp money hammering van Gisbergen and underdog buzz driving McDowell’s surge, this race could deliver surprises for bettors and sportsbooks alike.