NCAAB · 1 year ago

NCAA March Madness Picks for Friday’s First-Round Day Games

David Connelly

Host · Writer

No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Auburn - East Region | Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET | TNT
Yale felt like an exciting and trendy upset pick heading into the NCAA Tournament until they got drawn with Auburn. Danny Wolf is an unbelievable talent, but he will have his hands full on both ends of the court dealing with Johni Broome. The Tigers' size, athleticism, and overall intensity will be too much for the Bulldogs to handle, and we expect them to get by this one easily.

The Pick: Auburn -12.5
No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic - East Region | Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
While Florida Atlantic has some shocking losses during the season, their talent is undeniable. Dusty May boasts a well-experienced, congealed, deep roster, with Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, and Vladislav Goldin as the leaders of this group. They are also catching Northwestern at the right time. Injuries to Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson weaken the Wildcats, and we expect a balanced Owls team to handle those deficiencies properly in this one. Lay the short spread with FAU here.

The Pick: Florida Atlantic -2.5
No. 14 Colgate vs. No. 3 Baylor - West Region | Friday, 12:40 p.m. ET | truTV
We love Matt Langel and Colgate, but this isn't one of his better teams to reach the NCAA Tournament. This is the lowest-ranked Colgate team to reach the tournament under Langel among the five teams he has brought to the Big Dance, and a large part of that is due to its lack of offensive punch. Each of those teams has ranked inside the top 100 in KenPom's offensive efficiency, while this one doesn't crack the top 200. We'll hold off on the Raiders here and back a Baylor team that could put up 100 in this spot.

The Pick: Baylor -13.5
No. 12 UAB vs. No. 5 San Diego State - East Region | Friday, 1:45 p.m. ET | TNT
It's a fortunate spot for San Diego State because UAB is over-seeded here. The Blazers should be a 13-seed, as they sort of fell into this automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament. Losses by Memphis, South Florida, and Florida Atlantic early in the field opened things up and left UAB with a championship matchup against a poor Temple team. They cruised by with a win over the Owls, but there is no saving them against real competition. Expect Jaedon LeDee to have a field day, so back the Aztecs.

The Pick: San Diego State -7.5
No. 15 Western Kentucky vs. No. 2 Marquette - South Region | Friday, 2:00 p.m. ET | TBS
Western Kentucky feels like one of the more live 15-seeds in the bracket purely because of the injury to Marquette's Tyler Kolek. While it seems like he will try to play through an oblique injury, it's unclear if he will be 100 percent for the opening round. It's also worth noting that head coach Shaka Smart is 1-7 in his previous eight NCAA Tournament games. We see zero reason to trust the Golden Eagles here, and that's why we will be backing the Hilltoppers with plenty of points coming our way.

The Pick: Western Kentucky +14.5
No. 16 Stetson vs. No. 1 UConn - East Region | Friday, 2:45 p.m. ET | CBS
While most fans who caught Stetson in their championship victory over Austin Peay in the Atlantic Sun title game may find them dangerous and explosive, they cannot defend. Jalen Blackmon had an unbelievable performance, putting up a career-high 43 points against the Governors, but the porous defense kept the game close despite his outing. Blackmon could go for 70 against the Huskies, and it wouldn't be enough. Until the Hatters want to get serious on both ends of the court, their fate will be a 40-point blowout. Lay it with UConn here.

The Pick: UConn -26.5
No. 11 New Mexico vs. No. 6 Clemson - West Region | Friday, 3:10 p.m. ET | truTV
It's so trendy that it probably won't happen, but we'll be backing New Mexico here like everyone else. Clemson has been too questionable at times this season, and New Mexico seems to be peaking at the right time with their trio of guards. The Tigers don't boast a very athletic roster, and we worry about their ability to guard the Lobos with their shifty, downhill ball-handlers that can easily get to the rim. This feels like a mismatch, and we'll take the betting favorite.

The Pick: New Mexico -2.5
No. 13 Yale vs. No. 4 Auburn - East Region | Friday, 4:15 p.m. ET | TNT
Yale felt like an exciting and trendy upset pick heading into the NCAA Tournament until they got drawn with Auburn. Danny Wolf is an unbelievable talent, but he will have his hands full on both ends of the court dealing with Johni Broome. The Tigers' size, athleticism, and overall intensity will be too much for the Bulldogs to handle, and we expect them to get by this one easily.

The Pick: Auburn -12.5
No. 9 Northwestern vs. No. 8 Florida Atlantic - East Region | Friday, 12:15 p.m. ET | CBS
While Florida Atlantic has some shocking losses during the season, their talent is undeniable. Dusty May boasts a well-experienced, congealed, deep roster, with Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin, and Vladislav Goldin as the leaders of this group. They are also catching Northwestern at the right time. Injuries to Ty Berry and Matthew Nicholson weaken the Wildcats, and we expect a balanced Owls team to handle those deficiencies properly in this one. Lay the short spread with FAU here.

The Pick: Florida Atlantic -2.5