NCAAB · 7 months ago

NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters: Top 10 First-Round Most Likely Upsets

Grant White

Host · Writer

Midwest Region First Round: (10) Utah State vs. UCLA (7)
(10) Utah State (26-7) vs (7) UCLA (22-10)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rupp Arena
Location: Lexington, KY
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: TNT
Time: 9:25 p.m. ET
Spread: UCLA -5.5 | Total: 144.5
Moneyline: UCLA -240 | Utah State +195

The UCLA Bruins had a relatively quiet campaign in the Big Ten. UCLA was never in contention for a division title and eventually fizzled out in the conference tournaments. The Utah State Aggies' most prominent weakness is on defense, and we don't think the Bruins possess the tools to exploit it. Utah State triumphs in this Thursday night affair.
West Region First Round: (11) Drake vs. Missouri (6)
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(11) Drake (30-3) vs (6) Missouri (22-11)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Intrust Bank Arena
Location: Wichita, KS
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: truTV
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: Missouri -6.5 | Total: 133.5
Moneyline: Missouri -270 | Drake +220

While everyone else is fawning over 12 vs. 5 matchups, you can set your bracket apart with this auspicious 11 vs. 6 tilt. The Drake Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers play contrasting styles. Drake can slow things down and force Missouri out of its comfort zone. Moreover, the Bulldogs have a substantive advantage on defense, ranking almost 30 spots higher in KenPom's defensive efficiency rating. Mizzou is on upset watch.
East Region First Round: (15) Robert Morris vs. Alabama (2)
(15) Robert Morris (26-8) vs (2) Alabama (25-8)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rocket Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: truTV
Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
Spread: Alabama -22.5 | Total: 165.5
Moneyline: Alabama -8000 | Robert Morris +1800

Every once in a while, we get an upset so outrageous that no one could have ever seen it coming. Alabama's showdown versus Robert Morris can be that story we tell our grandkids. The Colonials have hit their offensive stride in the latter stages of the campaign, averaging 83.2 points per game over their past six. Alabama has been exposed on defense all season, but especially over the last two weeks. Robert Morris can pull off the unthinkable and send the Crimson Tide packing early.
South Region First Round: (9) Creighton vs. Louisville (8)
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(9) Creighton (24-10) vs (8) Louisville (27-7)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rupp Arena
Location: Lexington, KY
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Louisville -2.5 | Total: 145.5
Moneyline: Louisville -140 | Creighton +120

The eighth-seeded Louisville Cardinals enter their Round of 64 matchup versus the Creighton Bluejays as short favorites. However, as we'll soon find out, that designation is undeserved. Lousville's 11-1 run to close out the season was founded on inferior opponents and a home-loaded schedule. The Cardinals have shot below 44.3% in three of their past four, including just 28.0% from three over that stretch. Creighton advances, and we don't think it's close.
South Region First Round: (12) UC San Diego vs. Michigan (5)

(12) UC San Diego (30-4) vs (5) Michigan (25-9)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Ball Arena
Location: Denver, Colorado
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Spread: Michigan -2.5 | Total: 141.5
Moneyline: Michigan -150 | UC San Diego +125

The Michigan Wolverines draw the dreaded fifth seed and are on upset watch against the 12th-seeded UC San Diego Tritons. Irrespective of winning the Big West, the Tritons were headed to the big dance this season. They spread the ball around and are one of the most dangerous teams from distance. This spread is indicative of UC San Diego's upset potential, and we expect the Tritons to bust brackets in the Round of 64.
South Region First Round: (11) North Carolina vs. Ole Miss (6)
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(11) North Carolina (22-13) vs (6) Ole Miss (22-11)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Fiserv Forum
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: TNT
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Spread: N/A | Total: N/A
Moneyline: N/A | N/A

The North Carolina Tar Heels were one of the last four teams included in this year's tournament and had to take the long way into the Round of 64. Nevertheless, we expect them to be firing on all cylinders in Friday's showdown versus the Ole Miss Rebels. In short, what Ole Miss does, UNC does better. We're expecting the Tar Heels to validate their selection and pull off an upset in Round 1.
South Region First Round: (14) Lipscomb vs. Iowa State (3)
(14) Lipscomb (25-9) vs (3) Iowa State (24-9)

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Fiserv Forum
Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: TNT
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
Spread: N/A | Total: N/A
Moneyline: N/A | N/A

This one probably isn't on many people's radars at the outset of the NCAA Tournament, but the Lipscomb Bisons could force everyone to take notice. The Iowa State Cyclones have struggled over the final few weeks of the season. Iowa State has dropped four of its past seven, looking out sorts versus offensively efficient teams. And that's exactly what Lipscomb is. Watch the Bisons get the three-ball working early, ending Iowa State's tournament before it even gets started.
South Region First Round: (10) New Mexico vs. Marquette (7)
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(10) New Mexico (19-15) vs (7) Marquette (23-10)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rocket Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: TBS
Time: 7:25 p.m. ET
Spread: Marquette -4 | Total: 152.0
Moneyline: Marquette -170 | New Mexico +145

Granted, it's come against inferior opponents, but the New Mexico Lobos enter March Madness with superior metrics than the Marquette Golden Eagles. The Lobos average more points per game, have a superior field goal percentage and play more efficient defense. That's a recipe for disaster for the Golden Eagles, who have been flightless over the final stages of the regular season.
East Region First Round: (9) Baylor vs. Mississippi State (8)

(9) Baylor (19-14) vs (8) Mississippi State (21-12)

WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Lenovo Center
Location: Raleigh, NC
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Mississippi State -2.0 | Total: 130
Moneyline: Mississippi State -130 | Baylor +110

The Baylor Bears stumbled at the finish line, but that doesn't undermine their solid analytics profile since the start of the season. Baylor enters March Madness as the 29th-ranked team in net efficiency rating on KenPom, three spots ahead of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bears are at their best when they play at a slow and deliberate pace, which could force Mississippi State out of its comfort zone.
East Region First Round: (10) Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s (7)

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(10) Vanderbilt (20-12) vs (7) Saint Mary’s (28-5)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rocket Arena
Location: Cleveland, OH
Date: Friday, March 21
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Saint Mary’s -4.0 | Total: 136.5
Moneyline: Saint Mary’s -180 | Vanderbilt +150

The St. Mary's Gaels dominated the regular season, only to come up short in the West Coast Championship Game. In that contest, the Gaels could not generate any offense, which has been a hallmark of their neutral court performances. Vanderbilt can let St. Mary's beat themselves on offense and walk its way into the Round of 32.
Midwest Region First Round: (10) Utah State vs. UCLA (7)
(10) Utah State (26-7) vs (7) UCLA (22-10)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Rupp Arena
Location: Lexington, KY
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: TNT
Time: 9:25 p.m. ET
Spread: UCLA -5.5 | Total: 144.5
Moneyline: UCLA -240 | Utah State +195

The UCLA Bruins had a relatively quiet campaign in the Big Ten. UCLA was never in contention for a division title and eventually fizzled out in the conference tournaments. The Utah State Aggies' most prominent weakness is on defense, and we don't think the Bruins possess the tools to exploit it. Utah State triumphs in this Thursday night affair.
West Region First Round: (11) Drake vs. Missouri (6)
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(11) Drake (30-3) vs (6) Missouri (22-11)
WHERE TO WATCH & bet365 ODDS
Arena: Intrust Bank Arena
Location: Wichita, KS
Date: Thursday, March 20
Where to Watch: truTV
Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
Spread: Missouri -6.5 | Total: 133.5
Moneyline: Missouri -270 | Drake +220

While everyone else is fawning over 12 vs. 5 matchups, you can set your bracket apart with this auspicious 11 vs. 6 tilt. The Drake Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers play contrasting styles. Drake can slow things down and force Missouri out of its comfort zone. Moreover, the Bulldogs have a substantive advantage on defense, ranking almost 30 spots higher in KenPom's defensive efficiency rating. Mizzou is on upset watch.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Busters: Top 10 First-Round Most Likely Upsets

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