10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 7

College football is back! Week 7 presents a strong slate as the calendar turns to October. There are so many games that could offer incredible drama this week. Which teams are potentially on upset watch? 

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1. Ohio State (-14.5) at Illinois – Noon on FOX

The Ohio State Buckeyes have bulldozed every team in their path since the opening week’s narrow win over Texas. While their schedule has not been particularly challenging, there is no question that this week’s trip to Champaign is Ohio State’s toughest road trip to date (unless you believe Washington is a better team than Illinois). The Fighting Illini have beaten USC and Purdue since getting obliterated by the Indiana Hoosiers, and the combination of Luke Altmyer and Hank Beatty has been on fire. It seems unlikely that Illinois’ defense has a realistic chance of slowing down Ohio State’s offense, but if the Buckeyes turn the ball over a few times, this could become an interesting game.

2. Pittsburgh at Florida State (-10.5) – Noon on ESPN

The Pitt Panthers have an excellent offense that was being held back by poor quarterback play. Pat Narduzzi finally made the difficult decision to bench Eli Holstein and turn to freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel as the Panthers played Boston College. He was rewarded with a 500-yard-plus performance from the attack. The nation might not be paying attention yet, but they will be after this Saturday as Heintschel takes on a Florida State defense that is reeling after two straight losses. Mike Norvell does not have a good history of getting a team to refocus and stay motivated after consecutive losses, and I think the Panthers will put up a very nice offensive showing on the road. Do the Panthers have enough on defense to make Florida State one-dimensional and force Tommy Castellanos to be a pocket passer, and if so, is that enough to pull off the upset on the road? 

3. UCLA at Michigan State (-10.5) – Noon on BTN

The Michigan State Spartans are 0-2 in the Big Ten, and their lone win of substance is a narrow victory over Boston College, a team that is now 1-4 and 0-3 in the ACC. The Spartans are coming off a sloppy loss at Nebraska, a game in which they turned the ball over three times, had only 242 yards of offense, and fell 38-27. Why are they favored by double digits against Nico Iamaleava and the suddenly inspired UCLA Bruins? Granted, this game is a vastly different situation for the Bruins: UCLA is traveling from the West Coast to East Lansing and kicking off at 9:00 a.m. Pacific time, and MSU now has at least a bit of tape to study on the new coaching staff in charge, but UCLA has the most talented player in this game, and that makes them a dangerous underdog.

4. Indiana at Oregon (-7.5) – 3:30 on CBS

I don’t see the Oregon Ducks losing at home to anyone this season, but if someone was going to knock off Dan Lanning’s wrecking crew in Autzen Stadium, it could be Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and it will be fascinating to see what adjustments the coaching staffs have made for this game. If Indiana has figured out an alternative to the predictable static silent snap count they used at Iowa (and last season at Ohio State and at Notre Dame), the Hoosiers have an offense that could give Oregon’s defense some problems. IU also has an outstanding defensive coordinator who will likely create some pressure looks against young quarterback Dante Moore. This line opened at more than ten points and has dropped to just over a touchdown.

5. Nebraska (-6.5) at Maryland – 3:30 on BTN

The Nebraska Cornhuskers beat Michigan State and scored 38 points, but my goodness, that game was ugly, and the Huskers only had 282 yards of offense. The Maryland Terrapins blew a 20-point lead in the second half and fell to the Washington Huskies. However, this appears to be a Terrapins team that is much better than expected, thanks to the excellent quarterback play of Malik Washington. Nebraska has yet to prove it can win on the road in a hostile environment. Maryland doesn’t typically provide that, but if the Terrapins can figure out how to put together a full 60 minutes, they can pull off this mild upset.

6. Air Force at UNLV (-6.5) – 3:30 on CBSN

The UNLV Rebels are very quietly unbeaten. Dan Mullen’s squad is 5-0 with a margin of +48 points and three road wins. Those wins came against some poor opposition, but they did beat UCLA (before the coaching change in Westwood). They now welcome a desperate 1-4 Air Force team to Vegas, and the Falcons have one of the hottest quarterbacks in the country in Liam Szarka. Since taking over for Josh Johnson, Szarka has been lights out, and he’s racked up 850 yards passing and 448 yards rushing as he nearly single-handedly propelled his team past Navy in a classic last weekend. Air Force will almost certainly be able to put up points against UNLV, and that will give them a chance to pull the upset if they get a few breaks.

7. Florida at Texas A&M (-7.5) – 7:00 on ESPN

The Florida Gators put it all together last weekend and stunned the Texas Longhorns in Gainesville. Playing well in spurts has never been a problem during Billy Napier’s tenure; it’s finding consistency that has been the issue. That’s precisely what they are tasked with as they travel to College Station to take on Mike Elko’s red-hot Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies have played exceptionally well on defense, particularly on third down, over the past few games. Still, they have a history of giving up big plays through the air, and Florida is finally healthy at receiver with a difference-making freshman on the field and showing up right away. Florida has the talent to get this win. Can they lock in and repeat a good performance two weeks in a row?

8. Michigan at USC (-2.5) – 7:30 on NBC

The Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans square off on Saturday at The Coliseum in a game that could conceivably end up having an impact on the College Football Playoff race. Both teams are 4-1 with defensible losses (at Oklahoma, at Illinois by two points), but Michigan certainly has the schedule that sets up more favorably for a run to a strong record. Bryce Underwood is playing really well and beginning to find his rhythm as a passer, despite Michigan’s poor wide receiver room. That complements a robust running game and defense, making Michigan a dangerous team, and they only have one more game against a ranked team. If Michigan wins this game and enters the Ohio State game in Ann Arbor at 10-1, they’d be an interesting case for the College Football Playoff Committee.

9. Purdue at Minnesota (-9.5) – 7:30 on BTN

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 3-2, but they have given up 70 points in their last two Big Ten games. They now face a Purdue team that has dramatically improved from the 2024 version, particularly on offense. Minnesota gave up 28 points to Rutgers, and its secondary could be had by the Boilermakers. The biggest reason to believe in a potential upset here is the body-blow theory after the Golden Gophers played the Ohio State Buckeyes and lost 42-3. Can Purdue take advantage of the beat-up Golden Gophers? 

10. South Carolina at LSU (-9.5) – 7:45 on SEC Network

The South Carolina Gamecocks are coming off a bye week, but I think the Week 5 victory over Kentucky was a big step forward and offers some real hope for Shane Beamer‘s squad as they head to LSU. The defense only surrendered 2.6 yards per rush, and LaNorris Sellers looked healthy and accurate (11-14 plus 81 rushing yards) as they converted 8 of 15 third downs. LSU does not run the ball, and I think there is some genuine concern about whether this staff is the right fit. The heat gets turned up considerably on Brian Kelly as South Carolina wins outright at LSU.

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