5 Most Overrated Teams in CFB AP Top 25

5. SMU Mustangs (#29)

It's possible that the SMU Mustangs ride a relatively soft schedule and make more noise than projected, but the Mustangs being near the Top 25 doesn’t make much sense. They beat up on unimpressive opposition in the American Athletic Conference, beating bad teams like Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, East Carolina, Temple, Tulsa, Rice, and Navy. Look at the games the Mustangs played against the better teams on their schedule: Tulane with a wounded Michael Pratt was a win, but they were handled by Oklahoma and beaten soundly by TCU and Boston College. They return some excellent pieces, quarterback Preston Stone chief among them, but they’ll see many opponents that look just like Boston College and TCU in 2024: TCU, Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Boston College, Virginia, and California. SMU meeting expectations this season would be a surprise.

SMU Odds to Win the ACC: +1000

2. LSU Tigers (#13)

LSU’s defense in 2023 was abysmal. The Tigers surrendered 28 points per game and were shredded through the air by any decent quarterback they faced. That included giving up 45 points to Florida State, 31 to a bad Arkansas team, 55 to Ole Miss, 39 to Missouri, and 42 to Alabama. Thankfully for LSU, they had a Heisman Trophy performance at quarterback and a duo of dynamic wide receivers as the offense propelled them to a bowl win and a 10-3 record. LSU upgraded the defensive staff, but the personnel is essentially the same, and they whiffed on defensive linemen in the transfer portal. The amount of talent suggests there will undoubtedly be some improvement on defense, but it is foolish to assume that defense will be markedly better than it was a season ago. The offense should still be good, but there is a downgrade to some degree at quarterback and wide receiver. Add that up, and it’s difficult to expect LSU to improve enough on defense to earn this preseason ranking.

LSU 2024 Win Total: 9.5

3. USC Trojans (#23)

USC is in a similar boat to the LSU Tigers. Interestingly, the two square off as part of college football’s terrific Week 1. The Trojans had a generational talent at quarterback, but a dreadful defense prevented them from achieving significant success. The defense gave up a shockingly bad 34.4 points per game, and Lincoln Riley was forced to step back and take stock of the kind of program he had. Riley has said all offseason that the Trojans are changing the program's culture and focusing on getting more demanding on the defensive side of the ball. New defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn expects improvement, but the man is likely not a miracle worker. Improvement of even six points per game (a huge number for one season with no significant stars added to the unit) would be a major achievement, but it would still make them worse than where LSU was a season ago. Add question marks on the offensive line and the change from Caleb Williams to Miller Moss, and USC should not be ranked.

USC 2024 Win Total: 7.5

4. Louisville Cardinals (#26)

Louisville is not ranked, but they are the top team receiving votes. The Cardinals have to replace both running backs from a potent rushing attack, and starting quarterback Jack Plummer is also gone. Tyler Shough is in and is an upgrade on talent, but whether or not he can stay healthy is the “x-factor” for their season. Pass protection was a weakness a season ago, and Jeff Brohm leaned on the transfer portal to try to fix it. If the transfers don’t hit and Shough gets hit quite a bit, that big “x-factor” of his health could go sideways quickly. Louisville had an incredibly favorable schedule in 2023 (and was fortunate to beat Virginia and Indiana), which enabled the Cardinals to reach the ACC Championship Game. They took advantage of it and deserve credit, but they lost to Kentucky (again), dropped three straight to close the season, and have a lot of turnover on offense.

Louisville 2024 Odds to Win the ACC: +1000

5. SMU Mustangs (#29)

It's possible that the SMU Mustangs ride a relatively soft schedule and make more noise than projected, but the Mustangs being near the Top 25 doesn’t make much sense. They beat up on unimpressive opposition in the American Athletic Conference, beating bad teams like Louisiana Tech, Charlotte, East Carolina, Temple, Tulsa, Rice, and Navy. Look at the games the Mustangs played against the better teams on their schedule: Tulane with a wounded Michael Pratt was a win, but they were handled by Oklahoma and beaten soundly by TCU and Boston College. They return some excellent pieces, quarterback Preston Stone chief among them, but they’ll see many opponents that look just like Boston College and TCU in 2024: TCU, Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Boston College, Virginia, and California. SMU meeting expectations this season would be a surprise.

SMU Odds to Win the ACC: +1000