Big 12 Best Bets: Week 5 of the 2024 College Football Season

There is no shortage of intrigue on this week’s Big 12 card. Already, teams are competing for crucial wins in conference standings, vying for the Big 12 Championship and an automatic bid in the expanded College Football Playoff. Still, there’s an outside shot that the conference runner-up or an also-ran could crack the 12-team field, meaning every game matters in the 15-week season. That’s especially true now that we’re into the meaty part of the conference schedule.

We’ve identified our three favorite plays from this week’s Big 12 schedule.

Big 12 Play (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Spread: TCU +2.5 (-115) | Kansas -2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: TCU +102 | Kansas -122
Total: OVER 58.5 (-115) | UNDER 58.5 (-105)

After securing their first nine-win season since 2007 last year, the Kansas Jayhawks have quickly regressed in 2024. The Jayhawks have stumbled to a 1-3 record to opent the campaign, dropping two of those decisions as -8.5 chalk or higher. They’ll try and pick up the pieces in Week 5, hosting a feisty TCU Horned Frogs side that has exceeded expectations early in 2024. Sportsbooks have installed the hosts as short home favorites, but that confidence appears undeserved. 

Kansas has been completely ineffective at moving the ball downfield. Offensively, the Jayhawks are averaging 21.7 points per game on 370.0 yards against FBS opponents, ranking in the bottom half of the country in both categories. That’s overshadowed a usually stout defensive unit, although the Jayhawks were exposed against the West Virginia Mountaineers last time out. In Week 4’s showdown, KU gave up 443 total yards of offense, with 295 of those coming via the pass. 

Those defensive concerns play into the Horned Frogs’ strengths. TCU has a pass-happy offense, with Josh Hoover throwing for over 350 yards in three of his first four games. Moreover, the sophomore has completed 68.1% of his pass attempts with 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions. 

We’ve seen Kansas get exposed on defense, and the Horned Frogs should have no problem taking advantage of those vulnerabilities. Without the offensive firepower to keep pace, we expect TCU to pull away late. Horned Frogs moneyline is the play.

Recommended Play: TCU +102

2024 Group of 5 Power Rankings | Week 5 of College Football Season

Bigger 12 Play (2 Units)

#22 BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears

Spread: BYU +3.5 (-118) | Baylor -3.5 (-104)
Moneyline: BYU +125 | Baylor -154
Total: OVER 46.5 (-115) | UNDER 46.5 (-105)

The Baylor Bears are getting too much credit for keeping things close against the Colorado Buffaloes last time out. Losing in overtime to the Buffs as +2.5 underdogs has resulted in the Bears getting overpriced as -3.5 chalk against an undefeated BYU Cougars squad in Week 5. 

While this is a classic fade spot for the Cougars coming off a massive win against the ninth-ranked Kansas State Wildcats, the betting market has overcorrected in favor of the Bears. BYU’s defense is a stout unit, limiting two high-octane offense in the Wildcats and SMU Mustangs to a combined 628 yards and 24 points. That’s in addition to recording at least 34 points in three of their first four outings. 

BYU can wield those advantages unmercifully against a Baylor side that’s been outmatched early this season. The Bears have been out-gained in two of three against FBS teams, getting hosed for 432 yards in last week’s loss to Colorado. More concerningly, they’ve mustered 314 yards or fewer in all but one of those contests. 

It’s not outside the realm of possibilities that Baylor walks away victorious, but we’re not expecting them to runaway with the win. This line is hovering around a key number, and at its current offering, there’s an advantage in backing the Cougars.

Recommended Play: BYU +3.5 -118

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Biggest 12 Play (3 Units)

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Spread: Cincinnati +3.5 (-110) | Texas Tech -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Cincinnati +132 | Texas Tech -160
Total: OVER 59.5 (-102) | UNDER 59.5 (-120)

Fans of high-scoring football games should be sure to tune into Saturday’s Big 12 clash between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Both teams have cemented themselves as top-tier offensive programs, and we’re expecting scoring to reign supreme at Jones AT&T Stadium. 

As they typically do, the Bearcats have emerged as an elite offensive threat this season. In four games, Cincinnati is averaging 31.5 points per game and 467.5 yards of offense, albeit with one of those contests coming against FCS Towson. A free-flowing offense has allowed some bettors to overlook the Bearcats defensive shortcomings. Keep in mind, Cincinnati is still giving up 370.3 yards per game, 250.0 of which have come via the pass. Those concerns are amplified when adjusted for opponent, as the Bearcats have taken on the Pittsburgh Panthers, Miami (OH) RedHawks, and Houston Cougars.

Texas Tech came up short in Week 2’s battle against the Washington State Cougars, but they’ve responded in each of their last two. Across those outings, the Red Raiders put up 66 points and 586 yards versus the North Texas Mean Green, following that up with 30 and 334 against the Arizona State Sun Devils. 

Defense will be in short supply when the Red Raiders host the Bearcats. Both offenses are flourishing, overshadowing their shaky defensive efforts. The under may be juiced, but we’re still counting on this one eclipsing the total.

Recommended Play: Over 59.5 -102

Record: 9-3-0 ($1,050)

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