Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Legitimate AFC Contenders?

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From Pushing The Odds with Matt Perrault

Jacksonville’s AFC Contender Status Hinges on Trevor Lawrence and a Favorable Schedule

Jacksonville’s 12th consecutive home win over Indianapolis raised a larger question: Are the Jaguars legitimate AFC contenders, or has a favorable schedule helped them get off to a fast start?

The Jaguars belong in the contender conversation, but their outlook can change significantly from week to week. Losing Devon Hamilton to injury was a major blow to an elite run defense. Jacksonville’s pass defense remains vulnerable and has allowed plenty of yards, making defensive help a potential priority. Grover Stewart was mentioned as a possible trade target from Indianapolis.

Jacksonville’s ceiling may ultimately depend on which version of Trevor Lawrence appears each week. He has played more recklessly and has not performed as well as he did last season. Liam Cohen’s system has helped cover some of those issues, although his play-calling and red-zone decisions can also be questionable at times.

If Lawrence and the Jaguars get hot, they could easily enter the discussion as one of the AFC’s top three to five teams. On other weeks, however, they can look more like pretenders than contenders.

The schedule has helped Jacksonville and could continue to do so, with upcoming games against the Ravens, Titans, Giants and Bears. The more revealing stretch will come against the Bears, Steelers, Texans and Cowboys. Dominant performances in those games would make Jacksonville’s case much easier to believe.

At 5-2, the Jaguars have scored 196 points and allowed 111. They also hold a three-game division lead and have four games they should win, creating a possible path to a 9-2 record.

That possibility makes Jacksonville’s current Super Bowl odds worth monitoring. If the Jaguars complete that run, those odds could be cut in half. Their path to the AFC Championship Game becomes more realistic if they secure the conference’s top seed and avoid traveling to Kansas City, Denver or another cold-weather location. Playing postseason games at home in Florida could give them a chance to reach Los Angeles.

Buffalo appears to be Jacksonville’s biggest competition for the top seed. The Bills have upcoming games against the Vikings, Jets and Dolphins before facing the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers and Bears. If Buffalo drops several games during that stretch while Jacksonville keeps winning, the odds could move further in the Jaguars’ favor. Based on those schedules, the argument is that now may be the time to consider a Jacksonville Super Bowl futures bet.