Big Ten Week 10 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Saturday’s Action

Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off in November, the final month of the regular season. With five Saturdays to go, most Big Ten teams (14 of 18) have played eight games with four left. Six of those teams have off this week, leaving us with six games starting with a Big Noon Kickoff that isn’t nearly as impactful as we thought a few weeks ago when Penn State visits Ohio State. There are no ranked vs. ranked matchups, and four games have spreads of 13 points or higher. That doesn’t mean we don’t have enough plays to keep you busy while you eat your kid’s Halloween candy.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Last Week: 5-4 (+1.5 UNITS) | Overall: 30-25 (+ 3 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 20-17 (+1.5 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 10-7 (+3 UNITS) | B1GGER Bets: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 13-15 (-2 UNITS) | Team Totals: 15-5 (+7.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-5 (-2.5 UNITS)

Big Ten Week 10 College Football Picks

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 2-3 | Season: 20-17 (+1.5 UNITS)

Indiana -21 MARYLAND (@DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

I am all in the Hoosiers and still have reservations about the improved Terps. Indiana is an absolute wagon (are we still using that term?). This is what they’ve done in their past four games as a double-digit favorite: 56-9 vs. Kennesaw State, 73-0 vs. Indiana State, 38-13 vs. Michigan State, and 56-6 vs. UCLA.

Here are the updated numbers under Curt Cignetti after last week’s cover against the Bruins (who beat Maryland the prior week): 13-5 as a favorite, including 4-1 as a road favorite, and 7-1 in their past eight when favored by at least 20 points. As we said last week, they don’t mind running it up.

The Terps have been good ATS this season (5-2). However, let’s consider the schedule. They were favored in the first three games all by over 14 points (all wins), and while Maryland has been getting points in every Big Ten game (1-3 straight up), the most they’ve been underdogs was 10.5 against Wisconsin, a team that turned out to be vastly overvalued at the time.

This is a significant step up in competition, and Maryland isn’t ready for this buzzsaw.

Indiana is arguably the best team in college football, ranked first in net points/drive, first in quality drive ratio, second in EPA margin, second in offensive success rate, and fifth in defensive success rate. Maryland is better than expected but several tiers below IU, ranked 56th in net points/drive, 40th in quality drive ratio, 68th in EPA margin, 117th in offensive success rate, and 16th in defensive success rate.

The two teams in the B1G who kept it close against the Hoosiers were Oregon and Iowa, both ranked in the top ten in yards per play allowed (sixth & seventh) and in the top four in yards allowed in conference play (behind only OSU & IU). Elite units. Maryland’s defense has been the key to its success. However, they are 24th in YPP and 14th in yards per game allowed in Big Ten games. More good than great, and getting worse as the competition gets better, and the Hoosiers are by far the best offense on their schedule.

I expect Indiana‘s offensive line to control the line of scrimmage and win the day when the Hoosiers have the ball. See more on this matchup below.

MINNESOTA -3.5 Michigan State (@FanDuel)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

Don’t love either of these football teams, but I believe the Gophers are the superior side, in a better overall position as a program, and they’re at home. There’s a reason one team is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in conference play, and the other is 3-5 and 0-5 in Big Ten games.

Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, which includes an upset of Nebraska. It’s the only win either team has over a good Power Four program. The Gophers have two wins over Power Four teams with a .500 or better record. Michigan State’s best win? Against 1-7 Boston College. The Spartans are also coming off a home loss to rival Michigan.

Considering how uninspired MSU has been this season, it’s hard to imagine the Spartans will rise up this week, after losing the one game that could have saved their season and maybe Jonathan Smith’s job.

The Gophers, on the other hand, can clinch a bowl with a win and can still finish with eight victories and a winning Big Ten record. Unless they thought they were going to be a playoff team, most of their goals are on the table. Plus, P.J. Fleck’s teams typically show up.

Minny’s Drake Lindsey has been a different quarterback at home, where he’s completing 63.3% of his passes for 7.6 yards per pass with nine TDs to two INTs, and seven sacks in five games. He has a big arm and should have time to throw against what has been one of the worst pass defenses in the country (121st dropback success rate, 110th in pressure rate, 125th in YAC). If either offense finds its groove at Huntington Bank Stadium, it will be the Gophers.

Since 2021, Minnesota is 18-5 at home as the favorite and 13-9 after a loss. I’m expecting Fleck’s team to bounce back and get their sixth win on Saturday, and they should also cover in the process.

Michigan State UNDER 21.5 (-130 @FanDuel)

Minnesota’s defense is the best unit on either team, ranked 33rd in SP+. I give them a significant edge at the line of scrimmage. Their strong defensive line should get penetration against the run and pressure the quarterback. The back half of the defense tackles well and does a great job of limiting big plays.

The Spartans rank 101st in yards per play (5.21), while the Gophers are 29th in yards per play allowed. They also don’t beat themselves.

A big reason for their struggles is that MSU’s Aidan Chiles has really taken a step back in October, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an almost unthinkable 5.2 yards per pass (was at 9.0 in September) with one TD to two INTs, and 11 sacks in four games.

Eventually, they’re going to not score in the final minute to juice up their scoring numbers, right?

MICHIGAN -21 Purdue (@DraftKings)

Time: 7:00 PM | TV: BTN

Even though we got beat by a backdoor Michigan State touchdown last week, we were probably ambitious laying that many points with Michigan on the road, where Sherrone Moore’s team has underperformed since he’s taken over. They are much better at home, where they’ve won all nine games as the favorite.

More importantly, the offensive line and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood have been more comfortable in the friendly confines. In the Big House, Underwood is completing 69.4% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt with five TD passes to one INT and just four sacks (111 attempts), compared to five sacks (87 attempts) in fewer games on the road.

Quarterback aside, the Wolverines are the far superior team. Michigan is 21st in net points/drive, 12th in EPA margin, and 34th in quality drive ratio, while Purdue is 82nd in net points/drive, 93rd in EPA margin, and 105th in quality drive ratio. It’s a mismatch on both sides of the ball.

Even without their leading rusher, who is likely out, the Wolverines will be able to run the ball behind Jordan Marshall, who ran for 133 yards in his only start this season against Washington, which he followed up with 110 yards at Sparty. He’ll top the century mark again. Michigan’s skill players have more upside than some realize and should be able to flex against a tackling-challenged Purdue defense.

The Wolverines have a significant edge along the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The defense is trending in the right direction, and over their past three home games, they have allowed just 20 points, including holding the high-scoring Huskies to seven.

The Wolverines are banged up, which gives me some pause; otherwise, this would be a B1G Bet at this number.

Nebraska +5 USC (@Caesars)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC

This is all about the spot—mainly the location—which is not the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. In 12 games involving the Trojans where the road time was two-plus time zones away from home, the travel team is 2-10 overall and 1-11 ATS. Not everyone seems to know this, but Lincoln, Nebraska, is in the Central Time Zone (the same as Illinois).

As the road team in these scenarios, USC is 1-5 and has yet to cover (0-6 ATS). They did beat Purdue this season, but have not beaten the number in three road tries in 2025. Until Lincoln Riley and company prove it, I’m going to have to fade the Trojans away from home. His road woes go back to his time in Oklahoma.

Metrics-wise, the Huskers aren’t a bad team. They’re 32nd in net points per drive, 17th in quality drive ratio, 15th in offensive success rate, 24th in defensive success rate, 43rd in EPA margin, and fourth in net field position. It’s been a solid football team, borderline top-25. Some matchups favor the Cornhuskers and point towards their ability to keep this one close.

USC brings a vulnerable defense that has been pushed around against the run and whose poor-tackling secondary is primed to be exposed by a strong Nebraska receiving corps. Running back Emmett Johnson (837 yards, 5.7 YPC, 9 TDs) is a strong runner who can break tackles and break off long runs. Nyziah Hunter (33 receptions, 525 yards, 15.9 YPC, 5 TDs) is having an All-Big Ten-type season, while the ultra-quick Jacory Barney Jr. is dangerous, and Dane Key (4 TDs) is another receiver who knows how to find the end zone. Dylan Raiola is up and down, but unquestionably has more ups at home, where he averages 8.8 yards per pass with 11 TDs to three INTs (7.1 YPP, 6-3 on the road).

Nebraska’s weakness is its run defense, but with injuries in the trenches and backfield, I’m not sure the Men of Troy are equipped to take advantage.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Matt Rhule finally gets a win against a ranked team or if Riley gets a big road win. A USC blowout would surprise me. Getting nearly a touchdown at home for Nebraska isn’t a small number against a non-top ten team.

If this were double digits at USC or even -8.5 on a neutral field, I might be on the Trojans, but nearly a touchdown at the Huskers. I’ll take the points. If it were a touchdown, where the line was earlier in the week, this would be a B1G Bet. In addition to the travel, let’s consider temperatures below 50 degrees, which is much colder than USC is accustomed to.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-0 | Season: 10-7 (+3 UNITS)

Penn State UNDER 13.5 (-125 @DraftKings)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Penn State’s offense is going to have serious problems converting first downs at Ohio State.

Let’s start with the head of the snake. I’m well aware of Drew Allar’s lack of production against the Buckeyes in his career, but did you see Ethan Grunkemeyer in his first career start at Iowa? He was 15 of 28 passing (53.6%) for 93 yards and no TD passes to two interceptions. He averaged 3.3 yards per pass, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an average that low for a QB who completed at least half their passes. PSU averaged 6.2 yards per completion! Not sure which is more stunning. Their leading receiver had 19 yards on three receptions.

Being QB1 at Iowa is a tough first career start, but it doesn’t get any easier for the redshirt freshman, as he travels to Columbus this Saturday. OSU’s defense is first in points per drive, first in yards per play allowed (3.81), first in EPA, ninth in quality drive rate, and tenth in success rate. The Buckeyes are also first in scoring defense (5.9 PPG), and only one opponent has reached double digits.

Led by DE Caden Curry (34 tackles, 7 sacks), Ohio State’s defensive line has been stout. They will dominate what has been a very disappointing Penn State O-line (ranked 93rd in yards before contact). PSU’s backs have had to make a living breaking tackles…good luck with that at the Horseshoe. Not just their trenchmen, but their wide receiver portal additions have failed to produce and rank 98th in yards after the catch (OSU’s defense is ninth).

Throw in a likely conservative gameplan—potentially on both sides—and one of the slowest tempos in the country from the Buckeyes, and this should be a low-scoring affair. Like I said, the Nittany Lions will have trouble converting first downs. Take the team total under.

ILLINOIS OVER 37.5 (-125 @DraftKings)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: NBC

One of the most significant mismatches on Saturday is when Illinois has the ball against Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights have allowed 38 points to Iowa (31.3 PPG), 31 points at Minnesota (23.9 PPG), 38 points vs. Washington (35.5 PPG), 56 to Oregon (41.5 PPG), and 24 to Purdue (22.9 PPG) in five Big Ten games.

Every opponent has scored more than their season average against New Jersey’s state school, and three teams have been at least a touchdown better. Their metrics are gross, matching their play on the field.

RU’s defense ranks 127th in points per drive, 135th in success rate, 131st in quality drive rate, and 123rd in EPA. Going more granular doesn’t help matters: the Scarlet Knights are 133rd in yards after contact and 109th in missed-tackle rate against the rush. Not one-dimensional, Rutgers is just as bad (no-dimensional?) in defending the pass, ranked 131st in both sack EPA and yards after the catch.

They don’t get to the quarterback in the passing game or make any push against the run, and struggle to tackle against both.

Illinois isn’t as explosive as Oregon, but it’s close to Washington and among the better offenses Rutgers has faced this season.

The Illini’s offense ranks 31st in points per drive, 30th in success rate, 30th in quality drive rate, and 20th in EPA. Their offensive line gets a solid push (25th in yards before contact), and their playmakers make things happen after the catch (43rd in YAC).

Luke Altmyer is a veteran quarterback who is having his best season yet, with career highs in completion percentage (71.2%), yards per pass (8.9), and TD-INT ratio (15-3). His decision-making can be shaky against elite defenses, but when given time, the fifth-year senior is surgical. The reliable Hank Beatty (45 receptions, 690 yards) has emerged as a WR1, the speedy Collin Dixon (15.4 YPC) is a big-play threat, and the 6’4” Justin Bowick (4 TDs) is a red zone weapon.

Against USC (much better defense than RU) at home, the Illini were forced to punt once on their way to 31 points, which included two goal-line fumbles (one of which should have been overturned), and they scored 43 on Purdue with points on eight of nine possessions in the second and third quarters. Expect a similar effort on Saturday.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS)

MARYLAND UNDER 13.5 (+105 @Bet365)

Even more than IU’s offense, it’s their defense that’s going to have a stranglehold on this game.

This defense is right up there with the elite units of college football. Opponents are scoring 10.9 PPG (3rd) against them as they rank second in points per drive allowed. The Hoosiers are in the top ten in EPA/rush (2), EPA dropback (6), quality drive rate (1), early down EPA (2), 3rd/4th-down success rate (5), success rate on dropbacks (9), success rate on rushes (10), yards allowed before contact (5), pressure rate (5), sack rate (5), and yards after the catch (4).

They’re so good, it feels made up, but I promise you it’s not. Go ahead and check out CFB-Graphs yourself!

And about those Terps. Did you notice above when I mentioned they are 117th in offensive success rate? Well, Maryland is also outside the top 100 in EPA/rush (117), quality drive rate (106), early down EPA (110), 3rd/4th-down success rate (118), success rate on dropbacks (104), success rate on rushes (125), yards allowed before contact (134), yards after contact (121), and missed tackle rate (102).

Indiana has an elite defensive line, a troika playmaking linebackers in Aiden Fisher, Isaiah Jones, and Rolijah Hardy, a lockdown corner, and one of the nation’s top safety rooms. They are relentless, lead the Big Ten with 29 sacks, and as sound as they come, which limits big plays.

The only team to score more than 15 points against them is Oregon (20 points), which averages 41.5 PPG, and has scored 30+ six times and 41+ four times this season.

How is Maryland going to put up points?

They can’t run the ball against anyone and aren’t much better at throwing the football. It’s even worse in conference play, where they are 11th in yards per game. The Terps average 89.8 rushing yards per game (17th) against B1G opponents, which puts too much pressure on a true freshman quarterback, who has also seen his numbers dip in conference play. In five Big Ten games, Malik Washington is completing 57.3% of his passes (14th) for 5.6 yards per attempt (17th). This is a bad offense.

If you don’t mind laying extra (extra) juice, you can get 14.5 (-140) at Caesars.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

None. 

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