Big Ten Week 8 Expert Picks and Best Bets for Friday & Saturday

Week 8 of the College Football season is here, with 17 of 18 Big Ten teams set to take the field this weekend. Illinois finally gets its off week, as the action begins tonight in Minnesota, where Nebraska looks to win back-to-back road games for the first time since 2006 (per Chris Felica).

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Last Week: 4-3 (+1/2 UNIT) | Overall: 21-19 (+1/2 UNIT)

Not So B1G Bets: 13-11 (+ 1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 8-7 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 7-12 (-4 UNITS) | Team Totals: 12-4 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-3 (-1.5 UNITS)

Big Ten Week 8 College Football Picks

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 2-1 | Season: 13-11 (+1/2 UNIT)

MINNESOTA +7.5 Nebraska (@FanDuel)

FRIDAY | Time: 8:00 PM | TV: FOX

While Minnesota didn’t instill a ton of confidence with its win over Purdue last week, this line feels too hefty. Nebraska is the better team, no doubt. But a touchdown favorite in a Big Ten road game? I’m not sure they’re ready for that.

The Gophers are 4-0 at home this season and have won six of seven at Huntington Bank Stadium, including an upset of No. 11 USC (+8.5) last season, with their lone loss coming to No. 4 Penn State (+11.5) by one point. You can count on P.J. Fleck to have his team ready, motivated, and confident.

The Cornhuskers won their first road game last week but failed to cover the spread at Maryland. I could see something similar shaking out on Friday night. When favored by six points or more in Big Ten games, the Huskers are 4-2, but 0-5-1 ATS under Matt Rhule.

Moreover, Dylan Raiola has 6 TD passes to 10 INTs on the road in his career. Yes, four of the TDs came last week, but so did three interceptions. He still puts the football up for grabs too often for my liking.

Nebraska finally cracked the top 25 and could be feeling good about itself after back-to-back conference wins. There are rumors that Rhule was/is a leading candidate for the Penn State opening. We don’t know that they are distractions, but questions have been asked, and it could be. All things being equal, the Huskers would prefer not to have to deal with the chatter.

Give me the points.

MICHIGAN -4.5 Washington (@BetMGM)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Michigan is the better team. The margin is slim. Here’s the thing: neither side is the same on the road as they are at home.

You all know about splits with teams traveling multiple time zones, with Washington the poster child for this trend. Big Ten teams playing two-plus time zones away from home are 15-28 straight up and 15-28 ATS. In nine games involving the Huskies, the travel team is 2-7 overall and 1-8 ATS.

As the road team in these scenarios, UW is 1-4 and has yet to cover (0-5 ATS). Not only are they traveling multiple time zones, but it’s a noon ET kickoff (9:00 AM local).

This is all about the spot.

Michigan’s two losses and by far, worst two performances have come on the road (at Oklahoma, at USC). At home, they are 8-0 as a favorite under Sherrone Moore. They haven’t been a great cover in those games (3-5), but were favored by double digits seven times. The only instance of a single-digit spread was their 24-17 win over Michigan State (-3.5) last season. This is more their speed. 

They also smoked Central Michigan coming home off their first loss os 2025. Sure, Washington is much better than UCM, but Moore’s teams have been nothing if not resilient, with a 4-2 ATS record following a loss. They’ve played their best when written off, which has been the case this week.

I expect a bounce-back week from the defense in particular. That was an embarrassing effort last week by Michigan standards against USC. The 61 percent success rate allowed was the program’s worst effort since 2003! This defense isn’t as talented as the last few seasons, but there’s more than enough there that a game like last week shouldn’t happen.

The offensive line and true freshman quarterback should also be more comfortable in the friendly confines. Bryce Underwood is averaging 9.0 YPA with a 66.7 completion percentage at home, compared to 6.5 YPA and 51.4 on the road. That’s not all in him, but that’s where the offense is right now. More trustworthy at Michigan Stadium. They have pretty good offensive metrics on the season, despite playing three challenging road games, two of which they struggled mightily.

The Huskies are the best team the Wolverines have hosted, but UW is also ranked 92nd in points per drive allowed, 98th in quality drive rate allowed, and often it’s a challenge to get off the field (111th in 3rd/4th down success).

Last week, USC was the more desperate team at home. This week it’s Michigan.

I am a bit concerned about the backdoor cover, so I would consider taking some Washington in-game if the Wolverines can build a big enough lead.

INDIANA -27.5 Michigan State (@DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: Peacock

This is as big as any mismatch we’ve seen in conference play this season. The Hoosiers are right there with Ohio State as the best teams in the Big Ten.

Indiana does everything well on offense. They do everything well on defense, too. It’s why they rank in the top ten in EPA on offense and defense, offensive success rate (both rushing and on dropbacks), defensive success rate (both rushing and on dropbacks), points per drive, net field position, and quality drive ratio (No. 1). They’re in the top ten in 22 advanced metrics, as shown by CFB-Graphs.com.

Most importantly, when it comes to the point spread, the Hoosiers are second in net points/drive, with Michigan State ranked 73rd in the same category. Sparty is 94th in offensive success rate, 95th in defensive success rate, and 104th in quality drive ratio.

Indiana wins every matchup, and most by a landslide.

Michigan State is 0-3 in Big Ten play, having lost all three by double digits, and has allowed at least 38 points in all three games. They are a mess, headed in the wrong direction, and facing a fourth-straight losing season. Headed in the opposite trajectory of an Indiana program that keeps hitting new heights.

Earlier in the week, I might have leaned towards UNDER on Michigan State’s team total at 13.5, but that number has dropped to 10.5. Aidan Chiles has practiced on a “limited” basis, which means Alessio Milivojevic could be making his first start.

The Hoosiers are an ATS juggernaut under Curt Cignetti, who is 12-4 as the favorite, 12-4 after a win, 9-3 as a home favorite, and 9-3 in conference games. He knows only one way to play, and his teams at IU have taken on his personality. He’s also agreed to a new contract extension, which should keep him in the Hoosier state.

After facing close games against Iowa and Oregon, Cignetti will likely want to see a complete win, which means finishing strong. Do they need the style points? No. Does that matter to Cigs? No. Here’s how they’ve done in the second half of their last three blowout wins: 35-3 vs. Kennesaw State (21-6 at halftime), 28-0 vs. Indiana State (45-0 at halftime), and 28-0 vs. Illinois (35-10 at halftime). IU is second in third-quarter scoring (MSU’s defense is 96th) and 29th in the fourth quarter (102nd).

They take your heart out and stomp on it. That’s what the Hoosiers do. 

Oregon OVER 38.5 (-110 @DraftKings) at RUTGERS

Time: 6:30 PM | TV: BTN

After having issues with Indiana’s defense last week, expect OC Will Stein and company to look to get going this week against what might be the worst defense in the Big Ten.

Oregon averages 42.5 points per game, and in three Big Ten games, Rutgers has allowed 38 points to Iowa (30.7 PPG), 31 points at Minnesota (27.3 PPG), and 38 points vs. Washington (39.2 PPG) last Friday night in Seattle. The Ducks might be the best offense they will face this season.

Led by Dante Moore (15 TDs, 3 INTs), who can shred a defense when given time, Oregon’s offense is ranked seventh in points per drive, tenth in EPA, and 12th in success rate. It’s a balanced attack (16th in yards per play), with 15 rushing touchdowns to go with their 15 scoring strikes.

The Ducks have three running backs averaging at least 5.9 YPC, including two over 8.0 YPC, led by freshman Dierre Hill Jr. (9.2 YPC), an absolute speedster who puts a lump in the throat of any defensive coordinator when he turns the corner. A fourth runner, and another freshman, Jordon Davison, is an effective short-yardage converter who has seven rushing TDs on 31 carries.

How is Rutgers slowing them down? RU’s defense ranks 127th in available yards, 123rd in success rate, 116th in EPA, and 99th in points per drive. They’re balanced too (134th in yards per play allowed)—the Scarlet Knights can’t stop the run or pass.

A vintage Greg Schiano team would look to play keep away and win the special teams battle. This team knows they need to throw to have any chance, which should play into our hands. Don’t be surprised to see quick drives, incompletions to stop the clock, sacks, and potentially turnovers.

Special teams? SP+ has the Ducks third nationally, and the Knights 105th, which could net us a touchdown and/or good field position.

Against Penn State and Indiana, the Ducks scored just three offensive touchdowns in the past two games in regulation. They’re going to want to go off, and the Scarlet Knights are the perfect opponent.

IOWA-Penn State UNDER 40.5 (@Fanatics)

Time: 7:00 PM | TV: Peacock

Penn State’s offense has been among the most disappointing units in college football this season. To add injury to the insult of three-straight losses, QB1 Drew Allar is out for the season, which means backup RS freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer will be making his first career start, on the road, at Kinnick Stadium, at night. That’s a tough spot.

Oh, and he has to go against an Iowa defense that has allowed more than 20 points once this season. The last time at home, they limited a far superior Indiana offense to just 20 points. The Hawkeyes are eighth in scoring defense (13.0 PPG).

Despite 37 points last week, Iowa’s offense is still very limited. It’s a one-dimensional attack, which ranks 132nd in yards per pass and 114th in yards per play.

PSU’s defense isn’t blameless but has been good enough, ranked 29th in points per game (18.5) and points per drive. It’s the same unit that held Oregon to 17 points in regulation. Their coach got fired…do they not show up? Show a little pride? Play hard at the very least? If they play hard, they should be able to keep this a low-scoring game.

If I had to, I would take the Hawkeyes at home (-2.5). Regardless of how this contest ends up, expect it to be an ugly game. Both coaches are likely to be conservative on offense and will look to limit possessions. Doesn’t 16-13 sound right?

UCLA -2.5 Maryland (@FanDuel)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: FS1

The Terps are coming off consecutive Big Ten losses after starting the season 4-0. They blew a 20-0 lead against Washington (20-3 going into the fourth quarter) and a 31-24 fourth-quarter lead last week vs. Nebraska, before they gave up the game-winning touchdown with 1:08 remaining.

With UCLA, we have a program heading in the opposite direction, with wins over Penn State and at Michigan State in the past two weeks.

They also boast a more trustworthy offense, ranked 41st in success rate (22nd per dropback), despite a terrible start to the season. The Terps, on the other hand, are 114th in offensive success rate. With Nico Iamaleava unlocked and Maryland having given up 58 points in the past six quarters, I like UCLA to pull out a third-straight win. I don’t see Maryland keeping up on the road, three time zones away.

The Bruins don’t have a great homefield advantage, but have done well as the host in these travel games, 2-2 overall (all as the underdog), and 3-1 ATS (lone loss was vs. Indiana last season). Bucking that trend with a freshman quarterback isn’t the side I want to be on. Malik Washington has impressed as a true freshman, but Maryland’s passing metrics are poor, and he completed a season-low 52.9 percent of his passes in his only road start this season, at Wisconsin.

Since 2021, the Terps are 18-0 in non-conference games, but just 13-26 in Big Ten action. They’re 7-20 straight up when the underdog, and 3-11 as the road dog. They also typically don’t respond well to losses, 9-15, following a defeat. It’s not much better ATS: 15-24 in conference games, 5-9 on the road getting points, and 10-14 after a loss.

NOTRE DAME -9.5 USC (@BetMGM)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: Peacock

We mentioned how Washington is the poster child for the travel team time zone issues. Make room for their former Pac-12 brethren, USC. Let’s call them billboard brothers.

In 11 B1G  games involving the Trojans, the travel team is 2-9 overall and 1-10 ATS. This isn’t a Big Ten game, but the logic applies, especially considering Notre Dame is better than most B1G teams.

As the road team in these scenarios, USC is 1-4 and has yet to cover (0-5 ATS). Their only win came this season at Purdue, and they’ve failed to cover both their road games this season (lost at Illinois).

This is an improving Fighting Irish defense. After giving up at least 27 points in their first three games, they’ve allowed a total of 27 points in the past three games, while facing some pretty good quarterbacks.

While they’re not 100 percent healthy, neither is USC’s offense, as they’ve been missing two key starters along their offensive line, and will be without their top two running backs for the foreseeable future. Yes, third-stringer King Miller was fantastic last week and has been effective all season, but now he will be asked to carry the load (29 carries through six games).

The running game and offensive line injuries become a bigger issue with the weather expected to be rainy, chilly, and windy in South Bend. All factors that should impact the Trojans more than it does the Fighting Irish.

I said it before: Last week, USC was the more desperate team at home. This week it’s Notre Dame. This is a must-win for Marcus Freeman’s team if they want a chance at making it back to the College Football Playoff.  

NOTRE DAME OVER 35.5 (-105 @DraftKings)

Time: 6:30 PM | TV: BTN

Notre Dame’s most significant edge in this matchup is when its offense has the ball. This is an explosive attack that averages 40 points per game and has scored at least 36 points in four of its past five. CJ Carr (13 TDs, 3 INTs, 10.3 YPA) has been impressive, while the duo of Jeremiyah Love (530 yards, 5.3 YPC, 8 TDs) and Jadarian Price (422 yards, 6.7 YPC, 7 TDs) might be the best in the country.

They have no shortage of weapons through the air, as four Golden Domers have multiple TD receptions, and three are averaging over 17.0 yards per catch.

The Irish’s offense is ranked third in points per drive, fourth in EPA, and 25th in success rate.

USC’s defense is improved, but it’s still vulnerable. They’re giving up a hefty 5.6 yards per play (83rd). I wouldn’t be surprised to see ND run it right at a rush defense that’s 94th in success rate. Against the pass, the Trojans are 110th in yards per completion allowed.

Notre Dame is not just the best offensive USC will have faced to this point; it’s easily the most balanced attack.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-2 | Season: 8-7 (+1 UNIT)

None.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS)

None.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

None. 

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