Big Ten Week 9 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Saturday’s Action

Week 9 of the College Football season will see seven Big Ten games with 14 teams in action. Big Noon Kickoff is in Bloomington as No. 2 Indiana hosts streaking UCLA, and either Rutgers or Purdue will get their first conference win on Saturday. We also have a pair of classic rivalry games, Michigan at Michigan State and Minnesota at Iowa, with the home for the Paul Bunyan Trophy and the Floyd of Rosedale for the next 12 months in the balance.

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Last Week: 5-3 (+1 UNIT) | Overall: 26-22 (+ 1.5 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 18-14 (+ 2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 8-7 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)

ATS Bets: 11-13 (-2.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 13-5 (+6 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-4 (-2 UNITS)

Big Ten Week 9 College Football Picks

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 5-3 | Season: 18-14 (2 UNITS)

WASHINGTON -3.5 Illinois (@DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

Remember last week when we were fading Washington as the road team?

In ten games involving the Huskies in which the road team had to travel multiple time zones, the travel team is 2-8 overall and 1-9 ATS. As the home team in these scenarios, UW is 3-1 straight up and 3-1 ATS. Only No. 1 Ohio State has been able to buck the trend.

Throw out the time zone, and let’s look at Washington at Husky Stadium. They are 8-0 as the home favorite over the past two seasons, with covers in six of those wins (75%).

They are a different team in the friendly confines.

In terms of metrics—the most important one for the spread—UW also has the edge, ranked 40th in net points/drive, well ahead of Illinois at 78th.

The defense is as healthy as they’ve been all season. Last week marked the first time that CB Tacario Davis, EDGE Zach Durfee, and LB Jacob Manu all played in the same game. That’s their best defender, top pass rusher, and leading linebacker.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, with a game under their belt for their key trio and back at home, we see the Huskies play their best defensive game of the season.

Per Chris Fallica’s Bear Bites, ranked teams who are road underdogs by more than a field goal against an unranked team (like Illinois) have lost 15 of the past 16, so at the very least, use Washington on the moneyline in your parlay.

WASHINGTON OVER 28.5 (-115 @DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

Offense is where the Huskies will win this game.

Despite having played two top-ten defenses in Ohio State (probably the best) and Michigan (on the road), Washington’s offense is ranked seventh in success rate, 15th in EPA, 18th in yards per play, and 23rd in points per drive.

Against non-top-ten defenses, the Huskies have scored 38 points vs. Colorado State, 70 vs. UC Davis, 59 at Washington State, 24 at Maryland (all in the second half!), and 38 vs. Rutgers.

Illinois is not even close to being a top-10 defense, ranked 110th in success rate, 74th in yards per play, and 117th in points per drive. They are especially vulnerable to the pass (125th in success rate/dropback) and are 103rd in yards after the catch allowed.

That’s what the Huskies do best, ranked second in yards after the catch. Denzel Boston (34-515-6 TDs) is a legit No. 1 WR, freshman Dezmen Roebuck (21-358-17.0 YPC) has emerged as a solid WR2, and RB Jonah Coleman (23-284-12.3 YPC) is one of the best pass catchers out of the backfield. Coleman is also an elite runner with a nose for the end zone (12 rushing TDs).

It all starts with Demond Williams Jr., a dynamic dual-threat who is accurate (72.1%), a big-play guy (9.7 YPA), who can also beat you with his legs (353 yards-4.6 YPC-4 TDs). It’s that skill set that makes the Huskies so hard to get off the field. Washington is fifth in third/fourth-down success rate, which will be trouble for an Illini defense that’s 110th in that category.

In four Big Ten games, Illinois has allowed 34-plus points three times, with a season low of 27 points by Purdue, for an average of 39 PPG. I don’t expect the Huskies to have much trouble cracking 30.

UW lost tackle Max McCree last week, but on Monday, Jedd Fisch said he’s hopeful to have both left tackle Carver Willis and left guard John Mills back on Saturday, which he upgraded to “trending very well" on Thursday. Their return would be huge.

OREGON -31.5 Wisconsin (@FanDuel)

Time: 7:00 PM | TV: FS1

This line keeps dropping, so I have to take the Ducks —or, more accurately, fade Wisconsin. The Badgers have lost five straight games, with just 20 points scored in four Big Ten contests. So you can understand why their team total for Saturday is 6.5. But one freak play or kick return (see Alabama game) can beat you.

What are the odds the Ducks keep Wisconsin under 6.5 but don’t cover? Sure, a 33-3 final is possible, but the better bet is Oregon covering.

The Ducks are elite on both sides of the ball, ranked fifth in EPA margin (top eight on both offense and defense), tenth in success rate on offense, 18th in success rate on defense, and, most importantly, third in net points/drive. They do everything well.

The Badgers do nothing well. They are ranked 99th in EPA margin, 110th in success rate on offense, 120th in success rate on defense, and, most importantly, 112th in net points/drive.

Few teams have been as inept as Wisconsin on offense. Hunter Simmons (54.9%, 5.4 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INTs) has been worse than Danny O’Neil since taking over at quarterback. Moreover, none of their three running backs is gaining 4.0 yards per carry.

On the flip side, Dante Moore is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 9.0 YPA with 19 TDs to just four INTs. When he has time, he can shred any defense. Considering Wisconsin is 104th in pressure rate, Moore will have time to pick them apart. The Badgers are also 102nd in yards after the catch defensively, which doesn’t bode well against an Oregon offense chock-full of playmakers.

The Ducks have four pass catchers averaging at least 14.5 YPC and four with three-plus touchdown receptions. On the ground, they have not one, not two, not three, but four running backs who have carried the ball at least 34 times and are averaging over 5.8 YPC. Three of their big four are averaging over 7.0 yards per carry.

It’s going to be all Oregon, all day. Under Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 15-8 as the home favorite, and 9-1 as a favorite of 27 points or higher. In five games against unranked teams this season, the Ducks have won by an average score of 52-9, winning four of the five by at least 34 points. This will be another 30-point win for Lanning and company.

Michigan -14 MICHIGAN STATE (@BetMGM)

Time: 7:30 PM | TV: NBC

These Mitten State programs are headed in opposite directions. Michigan has won four of five games with a 3-1 conference record and a very realistic chance to be 7-1 in Big Ten play going into their season finale. Michigan State has lost its past four games, is 0-4 in conference play, and has a very realistic chance to finish last in the Big Ten.

The Wolverines are 13th in EPA margin and 24th in net points/drive, yards per play (6.62), and yards per play allowed (4.74), while the Spartans are 110th in net points/drive, 94th in yards per play (5.37), 88th in yards per play allowed (6.20), and 86th in EPA margin.

Michigan’s offensive line is coming off a strong performance, and they have done a good job of limiting pressure and getting a push in the run game.

Sparty’s defense has been among the worst at stopping the run, and arguably worse at defending the pass. They don’t get pressure or penetration, as their defensive line is regularly pushed around. They’re 126th in yards after catch, 122nd in pressure rate, 121st in success rate, 120th in yards after contact, and 110th in missed tackle rate.

Conversely, Michigan’s offense is 17th in yards after catch, 19th in pressure rate, and 35th in success rate. Bryce Underwood continues to improve steadily and is coming off his best game, and they proved last week that they can run the ball even without Justice Haynes. Am I ready to trust the Wolverines on the road against a good team? Nope, but that’s not the situation this Saturday.

The defense has been the strength of this team, ranked 22nd in points per drive. Where they excel the most is getting penetration, ranked fifth in pressure rate and tenth in yards before contact allowed. While Wink Martindale is known for his blitzing schemes, the Wolverines are among the best teams in generating havoc with just four rushers. Fewer blitzes were effective against Washington last week and should be against MSU as well, with one of the worst offensive lines in the Big Ten. Michigan’s front will dominate the trenches.

This is another mismatch in the Battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The Wolverines have won the past three matchups by an aggregate score of 102-24, including covers in the past two years.

Neither team has been great ATS (both are 3-4). Michigan has covered in three of its past four wins, and the way Wisconsin played out, they should have covered all four. If not for three back-door covers, the Spartans could easily be winless ATS. The Wolverines win this one by three touchdowns, as they control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Northwestern-NEBRASKA UNDER 45 (@Bet Rivers)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FS1

Take out wins over Western Illinois and UL Monroe (42 points each game), Northwestern averages 15 PPG with a high of 22 points (in five games). The Wildcats are better than many anticipated, but the offense remains suspect.

Even including games against Western Illinois and UL Monroe, the ‘Cats rank 83rd in points per drive, 87th in yards per play, 62nd in EPA, and 55th in success rate. They’re not winning games because of their offense.

The Wildcats are in position to make a bowl because of a defense that has held every opponent they’ve faced this season to below their season scoring average, including five straight games holding their opponent more than eight points below their average. In four Big Ten games, Northwestern has allowed 17.25 PPG, which drops to 11.67 over the past three (UCLA, PSU, Purdue). Including the loss to Oregon, those B1G teams average 30.65 PPG this season, well above what they scored against the Wildcats.

Nebraska doesn’t pick up many yards after contact and has one of the worst sack EPAs (130th). Where the Huskers make things happen on offense is yards after the catch, which is a strength of Northwestern’s bend-but-don’t-break defense.

The Wildcats have allowed just seven red zone touchdowns, and the Cornhuskers have allowed six. Only Ohio State and Indiana have given up fewer among B1G teams.

Maybe Nebraska bounces back; perhaps they don’t. Maybe Northwestern clinches a bowl season; perhaps they don’t. Either way, this will be a low-scoring affair and go under, just as all of Northwestern’s Big Ten games have gone.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 8-7 (+1 UNIT)

INDIANA -25.5 UCLA (@FanDuel)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is playing elite football right now, and there is no shortage of weapons around him. With 80 receptions for 1,184 yards and 16 TD grabs, the duo of Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. has been as dynamic as any in the country.

UCLA’s defense hasn’t proven it can hang with an offense of this caliber. Their last five opponents are 75th or worse in yards per play, while the Hoosiers are eighth. Whether it’s passing or rushing, offense or defense, IU is in the top ten of many categories, including 23 key advanced metrics, as shown by CFB-Graphs.com.

IU is in the top six in success rate on offense and defense, and second nationally in EPA margin and net points/drive. UCLA is 81st in EPA margin and 109th in net points/drive. Yes, the Bruins have been playing better of late, but let’s not ignore the fact that their three wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-11 in conference play.

In their three wins, the Bruins had 22 runs of 10+ yards, compared to 14 in their first four games. They’ve also had seven of 12 pass plays of 20+ yards and three of their four completions of 30+ yards during the winning streak. That won’t be easy to continue against an Indiana defense that’s fourth in rushes of 10+ yards allowed and third in pass plays of 20+ yards. The Hoosiers make you earn it, and UCLA hasn’t shown it can sustain drives against this level of defense.

In addition to having the far superior offense and defense, IU also has a significant special teams edge, ranked ninth on SP+ and 11th in net field position, while UCLA ranks 70th and 83rd.

Indiana has won four straight home games by at least 25 points. They are 12-5 as a favorite, including 9-4 as the home favorite, and 5-1 when favored by at least 24 points since last season. They don’t mind running it up.

Minnesota UNDER 14.5 (-120 @FanDuel) at IOWA

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

Outside of the first half at Rutgers, Iowa’s defense has played excellent football this season, especially at home. They allowed seven points to both Albany and UMass. They limited Indiana to 20 points, which is 24 points below IU’s season average and ten points less than their next-lowest-scoring game (30 points at Oregon). Penn State did score 24 points a week ago, but that total includes a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown and a touchdown off an early interception.

The Hawkeyes boast a strong front four that generates pressure on opposing quarterbacks and provides a push upfront against the run, ranking them among the best in yards before contact. They are also fourth in yards after the catch allowed. Iowa is 11th in points drive, 10th in defensive EPA, and 31st in success rate.

Minnesota’s offense has struggled to find consistency this season, with 17 points total in two road games (at Cal and Ohio State). The Gophers are 99th in points per drive, 81st in EPA, and 82nd in offensive success rate. They are 90th in yards per play (5.43), and it won’t get easier against an Iowa defense that’s eighth in yards per play allowed (4.20).

The offensive line isn’t up to the level of previous Minnesota units. Opposing defenses get to the ball carrier all too quickly as the rushing attack isn’t where it needs to be. They are 112th in EPA/rush and 108th in rushing success rate.

Iowa wins this game at the line of scrimmage. Both teams aim to play complementary football, but only Iowa is executing this strategy. They run the ball well and play the field-position game, thanks in part to their superior special teams.

The Hawkeyes are ranked fifth in net field position and 33rd on special teams per SP+, compared to the Gophers, who are 76th in net field position and 82nd on special teams (SP+).

This will be a slow-paced, low-scoring game, with the strongest unit on either team being Iowa’s defense.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-1 (-1.5 UNITS)

None.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN UNITS)