Boise State Broncos Preview, Predictions & Season Win Total Pick

Since the turn of the century, the Boise State Broncos have been the class of the Mountain West Conference. And that’s unlikely to change in 2024. The Broncos trot out a reloaded roster, looking to build off of last season’s hard-fought MWC Championship. Their position as the best in class is reflected across the betting market, with Boise State priced as -125 chalk to win the MWC, +400 to make the College Football Playoff, and a 9.5 win total. But as we’ve seen in the past, the Broncos have been prone to crack when the stakes are the highest.

Boise State Broncos Preview

2023 Record: 8-6 (6-2); MWC Finish: 1st
A.P. Poll: N/A | Coaches Poll: N/A | PFF: N/A | SP+: No. 39
Head Coach: Spencer Danielson: 3-1 (2-0) | 2nd Season (8th Season with Boise State) | Overall: 3-1
Offensive Coordinator: Dirk Koetter (3rd Year)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Erik Chinander (1st Year; 2nd season with Boise State)

Boise State Broncos Futures Odds (FanDuel)

National Championship Odds: +50000 | CFB Playoff Odds: +400
MWC Championship Odds: -125
Regular Season Wins: OVER 9.5 +108 | UNDER 9.5 -132

Boise State Preview: Why You Should Be Bullish

While the Broncos have earned a reputation as a top-performing offensive team over the years, it’s the defense that gets the engines revving this year. Boise State returns virtually all of its starters from 2023, building off their stout performance. They finished in the top four in the MWC in yards and points per game, limiting opponents to 375.5 and 24.8, respectively. Both of those metrics should plummet in 2024. Defense notwithstanding, all the Broncos need on offense is a heavy dose of Ashton Jeanty. The Doak Walker candidate finished last season with 1,347 yards on 220 carries for 6.1 yards per carry. Additionally, Jeanty hauled in 43 receptions for 569 yards, putting him within reach of 2,000 combined yards for the season. He’ll be featured heavily on offense, making Jeanty the man for the Broncos.

Boise State Preview: Why You Should Be Bearish

As good as Jeanty is, we can’t look past some of the other shortcomings on offense. Granted, former four-star recruit Malachi Nelson lands in Boise from the quarterback factory of the USC Trojans, but he’s still an unproven commodity. Nelson threw just three passes in mop-up duty at the start of last season, completing one of those throws for zero yards. Moreover, the team lost their top pass-catcher, Eric McAlister, to the TCU Horned Frogs, with their second-leading wide receiver, Billy Bowens, exhausting his eligibility, leaving a glaring hole on offense. Surely, Prince Strachan and Cameron Camper will pick up some of the slack, but this passing attack still has a lot to prove.

Boise State Breakout Player: LB Andrew Simpson, Junior

Ahmed Hassanein had his coming out party last year, recording a monstrous 12.5 sacks and 52 total tackles from his defensive end position. This year, we’re predicting Andrew Simpson gets the credit he deserves as the anchor of the linebackers corps. Simpson had a standout sophomore campaign, accumulating 66 tackles and 6.5 sacks, finishing in the top three on the team in both categories. That’s in addition to his two pass deflections, two interceptions, two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. In short, Simpson does it all and he does it well. For Boise State to reach the pinnacle of success this season, they need Simpson to continue his development and become a disruptive presence at every level of the defense.

Boise State X-Factor: QB Malachi Nelson, Quarterback

The Broncos ceiling depends on how effective Malachi Nelson can be in his first season as a starter. He benefits from the step-down in competition, but the Broncos still have an unforgiving schedule and a massive target on their backs. The California native has been touted as an excellent thrower, using his lean frame efficiently for downfield throws. Those passes become all the more crucial as the Broncos offense looks to create space for Jeanty through the first two levels. While he’s not known for his running ability, Nelson will need to rely on his athleticism to take yards that are given to him, particularly against the top competition Boise State will face this year.

Boise State Schedule Analysis

Kudos to the Broncos for consistently adding Power 5 opponents to their non-conference schedule. Although it’s an admirable feature not shared by many Group of 5 schools, it has become their undoing at times. As is typically the case, Boise State frontloads non-conference matchups, leaving the program with no margin for error early in the year. That’s the case again in 2024, as the team takes on the mighty Oregon Ducks in Week 2, following that up with a showdown against the Washington State Cougars in Week 4. The Broncos have sandwiched two winnable games and a bye week around those contests, but they will not kick off the conference schedule until the start of October. From there, it’s all a formality until they conclude the regular season against the Oregon State Beavers. 

Boise State Prediction: OVER/UNDER 9.5 Wins

Taking on the Cougars and Beavers at home could be the Broncos’ saving grace. There’s always something magical about the blue turf, especially on Friday nights. For Boise State to cash the over on their 9.5 win total, they’ll need to run through their conference schedule unscathed, picking up a win against one of Oregon, Washington State, or Oregon State. We’ll give them the benefit of the doubt against the Beavers at Albertsons Stadium at the end of November, but a slip-up on the road against the San Jose State Spartans or Wyoming Cowboys in the two preceding weeks might cost them that opportunity. Likewise, beating an underrated UNLV Rebels squad at the end of October is no easy feat. UNLV will have revenge on its mind after last year’s decisive defeat in the MWC Championship Game. On that basis, the edge in this wager is playing the under 9.5 wins. But even with two losses in conference play, that should be enough to get Boise State back into championship weekend, where they’ll have no issues defending their crown.

Boise State Preseason Pick

UNDER 9.5 (-132 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)

Boise State Best Bets

Under 9.5 wins -132, MWC Championship -125

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