Boise State vs UNLV Week 9 Prediction | College Football Picks Today, Best Bets

This game has been circled on the UNLV Rebels calendar since last season. UNLV made its first trip to the Mountain West Championship Game in school history, only to be humbled by the Boise State Broncos. Now, the Rebels can seek revenge by knocking off the 5-1 Broncos and positioning themselves firmly atop the conference standings. To do so, they’ll have to find a way of stopping Boise State’s high-octane offense. 

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Where to Watch Boise State vs. UNLV

• Location: Allegiant Stadium
• Time: Friday, October 25 at 10:30 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: CBS, Fubo (streaming)
• Spread: Boise State -3.5 | Moneyline: Boise State -160 | Total: 64.5

Boise State vs. UNLV Best Bet ATS: UNLV +3.5

As good as the Broncos are, the betting market is consistently overestimating their abilities as the favorite. Boise State is just 2-2-1 against the spread as chalk, failing to cover in either of their road games. We know what to expect from their offense, but the Broncos defense is consistently coming up short. FBS opponents are averaging 305.6 passing yards per game against Boise State, the fourth-most in the country. Further, that plays into one of UNLV’s more pronounced strengths. Since taking over the offense in Week 5, Hajj-Malik Williams has completed 70.5% of his throws for an average of 209.5 yards per game and 9.5 yards per pass attempt. As inferred, the Rebels quarterback continues to make decisions with the football, further evidenced by his 10-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. All that is without considering the 390 yards Williams has picked up on the ground, adding another layer to the Rebels’ offensive attack. Boise State’s defense will be out-matched against the Rebels, allowing them to stay within +3.5 at Allegiant Stadium.

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Boise State vs. UNLV Best Bet Total: Over 64.5

Of course, we must give Boise State credit for its continued success, premised on unrelenting scoring. The Broncos are operating one of the most prolific offenses in the country, averaging the second-most points against FBS teams (45.0) and the fourth-most yards (505.8). Predictably, that correlates with a pretty reliable over trend. The Broncos have sailed over the total in all but one of their six games this season, featuring an average of 73.0 points per game. UNLV is trending in a similar direction. Since Williams took over under center, the Rebels have gone over the total in three of four. We expect those trends to persist into Week 10, with this one eclipsing 64.5 points.

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Boise State vs. UNLV Best Player Props

UNLV Rebels Wide Receiver Ricky White Over 100.5 Receiving Yards

With Hajj-Malik Williams expected to shine, so is Ricky White. The UNLV receiver has been among the nation’s best pass-catchers, going off for 614 yards on 46 receptions. White has his foot on the pedal every time he steps onto the gridiron. The senior has eclipsed the century mark in four of seven games this season, including three of his past four. Over that more recent stretch, he’s up to 122.0 yards per game, falling below 127 yards only once. Moreover, ongoing success is substantiated by elite usage metrics. White has totaled 47 targets across the four-game sample while pulling in 36 of those looks. That leaves him with an NFL-caliber 76.6% catch rate that the Broncos won’t be able to defend. The pigskin will fly in this one and White will be the primary recipient. As a result, we’re betting he sails over 100.5 receiving yards against Boise State.

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