College Football Week 14 Picks: Best Bets and Predictions

It’s the last week of the College Football regular season, and every Tuesday we kick things off with our best bets of the week!

Check out what bets we’re targeting with this week’s selections!

Where to Watch Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Stadium: Memorial Stadium
Location: Lincoln, NE
Where to Watch: CBS
Time: Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Spread: IOWA -6.5 | Total: 39.5
Moneyline: IOWA -230 | NEB +195

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

Already bowl eligible, but without a chance of making the Big Ten Championship Game, the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Iowa Hawkeyes battle it out for pride and a potentially more prestigious bowl game berth. The betting market has the Hawkeyes out in front, but we like Nebraska’s chances of sending its seniors off on a high note in Week 14.

The Cornhuskers were handed a significant defeat last week, dropping a 37-10 decision to Penn State. Still, this is a team that should bounce back with a heartier effort at home. Nebraska ranks top 20 in total defense, limiting its opponents to just 306.3 yards per game. Moreover, their defensive scoring efficiency should improve against the Hawkeyes. They have given up more than 21 points just once over the past four outings, and a sharp decrease in points allowed is anticipated against the Hawkeyes.

At the same time, Iowa isn’t the kind of team to run up the score. They haven’t eclipsed 21 points since the end of October, averaging 19.7 points per game over their last three outings. Not surprisingly, they only have one win over that stretch, a three-point victory over lowly Michigan State last time out.

This has all the makings of a typically stout Big Ten matchup. Neither team boasts a game-changing offense, with both relying on tidy defensive play to stay competitive. There may be value in backing Nebraska on the moneyline or taking the more exotic +3.5, but we can’t overlook the value in the Cornhuskers covering the current number.

Best Bet: Nebraska +6.5

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Where to Watch Kentucky Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals

Stadium: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Location: Louisville, KY
Where to Watch: ACC Network
Time: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Spread: LOU -2.5 | Total: 47.5
Moneyline: LOU -140 | UK +120

Generally, there is a clear divide between SEC teams and the ACC; however, that perceived advantage is not reflected in Week 14’s spread between the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals. UK enters as road underdogs against a Louisville side that has dropped three in a row. With Miller Moss‘s availability still in question, this is an ideal spot to back the Wildcats.

Even with Miller in the lineup, this Louisville offense can’t do enough to offset its defensive woes. The Cardinals gave up 38 points to SMU last weekend, marking the second time in three weeks that they’ve given up at least 29. As expected, Louisville was out-gained in two of those three contests by a substantive margin, posting a -250 net yard differential across the three-game sample.

The Wildcats will take advantage of that wonky defense on Saturday. Over its last three games, Kentucky has put up 1,184 yards of total offense, albeit with one of those contests coming against FCS Tennessee Tech. Nonetheless, this team is at its best when it unleashes its rushing attack, an x-factor that should be on full display against the Cardinals. Louisville gave up 178 rushing yards to the Mustangs last time out, meaning three of their last four opponents have recorded at least 122 rushing yards.

Kentucky has an advantage on both sides of the football. Its defense has contained better offenses than the Cardinals, and the Wildcats can flex their offensive muscles against a lackluster Louisville defense. Some may target the spread, but we see UK walking away victorious in Week 14.

Best Bet: Kentucky +120

Where to Watch North Carolina Tar Heels vs North Carolina State Wolf Pack

Stadium: Wayne Day Family Field at Carter-Finley Stadium
Location: Raleigh, NC
Where to Watch: ACC Network
Time: Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: NCST -7.5 | Total: 48.5
Moneyline: NCST -280 | UNC +230

We’re staying in the ACC with our third best bet, targeting the in-state rivalry showdown between the North Carolina Tar Heels and North Carolina State Wolf Pack. The betting market may be sheepish on the total, but we expect offense to reign supreme at Carter-Finley Stadium.

Bill Belichick’s foray into the college football world has been a quandary. The Tar Heels have excelled at times, but usually against inferior opponents. When their defense starts working, the offense can’t build any momentum. And when their offense figures things out, their defense collapses. We’re anticipating another disorderly defensive performance against the Wolf Pack. North Carolina has given up 60 points over its last two games, with opponents combining for 767 yards.

That’s unlikely to change against an NC State team that has put up a combined 1,443 yards over its previous three home games, surpassing 500 yards in all but one of those contests. While the Wolf Pack will be expected to fire at will, they also don’t possess the defensive faculties to limit the Tar Heels’ attack. They rank 127th in total and 105th in scoring defense, giving up 435.2 yards and 29.7 points per game.

In-state rivalry games are usually hard-fought affairs, but this one should lean more into the offensive side of the football. NC State has flashed elite scoring potential at home, and the Tar Heels’ defense is on the downturn. In the end, North Carolina may be able to stay within a touchdown, but our favorite wager is taking the over.

Best Bet: UNC-NCST Over 48.5

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