College Football Week 6 Picks: Best Bets and Predictions

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Check out what bets we’re targeting with our Week 6 selections!

Where to Watch (16) Vanderbilt Commodores vs. (10) Alabama Crimson Tide

• Stadium: Bryant-Denny Stadium
• Location: Tuscaloosa, AB
• Where to Watch: ABC
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Spread: Alabama -10.5 | Total: 56.5
• Moneyline: Alabama -410 | Vanderbilt +315

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

After a season-opening loss as -13.5 chalk versus Florida State, the Alabama Crimson Tide have rattled off three impressive wins. Included in that was last week’s clutch win over the fifth-ranked Georgia Bulldogs as +2.5 dogs. Now settling back into the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium, Bama should have no problem humbling the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday. 

The Bulldogs were unable to gain any offensive traction against the Tide. By the end of the SEC clash, Georgia was out-gained and put up just 357 yards of total offense. At the same time, Alabama has looked increasingly confident on offense. Most impressively, they’re converting 53.6% of the third-down attempts and averaging 313.0 passing yards per game.

Kudos to the Commodores for hanging around as long as they have; however, we are anticipating immediate regression from the now 16th-ranked team in the country. Vandy’s scoring efficiency is through the roof, managing 49.0 points per game on 494.4 yards. Still, those benchmarks are inflated thanks to taking on three Group of 5 teams and a 2-3 V-Tech team. As we saw with their 323 total yards against South Carolina, the Commodores fall significantly short against SEC teams. 

This one could get out of hand. The Crimson Tide are looking to re-establish themselves as playoff contenders, and a win versus any ranked opponent looks good in the eyes of the CFP. Roll Tide, baby! 

Best Bet: Alabama -10.5

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Where to Watch (11) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Houston Cougars

• Stadium: TDECU Stadium
• Location: Houston, TX
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Spread: Texas Tech -11.5 | Total: 49.5
• Moneyline: Texas Tech -450 | Houston +340

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have turned on the offensive jets early this season. Still, they aren’t deserving of the -11.5 price tag ahead of their Big 12 showdown versus the Houston Cougars. This one should be much closer than the betting line implies. 

Houston’s defense is one of the best in the country. Through four games, the Cougars are holding opponents to 265.5 yards and 13.3 points per game, ranking 16th and 14th in the FBS, respectively. Further, we’ve seen them methodically take care of the ball on offense. Houston averages 36:45 of time of possession at TDECU Stadium, utilizing a balanced attack to keep opponents’ offenses off the field. 

A systematic approach will be needed to quell the Red Raiders’ aerial attack. Texas Tech is up to 358.5 passing yards per game, easily the most in the country. Still, they will need to find holes in Houston’s secondary, which has muted opponents’ passing attacks. So far this season, opponents are averaging just 125.5 yards per game, which is a testament to the strength of the Cougars’ defense. 

Home-field makes all the difference in this one. The Cougars have flexed their defensive muscles in their friendly confines, an asset that neutralizes Texas Tech’s advantages. We’re taking a firm stance on Houston +11.5, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see it end Texas Tech 27, Houston 24.

Best Bet: Houston +11.5

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Where to Watch Syracuse Orange vs. SMU Mustangs

• Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
• Location: Dallas, TX
• Where to Watch: ESPN2, ACCN
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Spread: SMU -16.5 | Total: 58.5
• Moneyline: SMU -750 | Syracuse +520

The SMU Mustangs have quickly fallen out of the College Football Playoff picture. While the betting line may lead one to believe they will get back on the winning track, we predict they will have a tough time slowing down the Syracuse Orange offense in Week 6.

SMU’s two wins have come against FCS Texas A&M Commerce and recent Group of 5 addition, Missouri State. Otherwise, the Mustangs were torched for 48 points against Baylor in Week 2 and 35 points against TCU last time out. In those games, the Bears put up 440 passing yards and 601 yards of total offense, with the Horned Frogs going off for 379 passing yards and 517 total. 

Even though Steve Angeli is out for the remainder of the season, Rickie Collins wasn’t as bad as his stat line implies. Syracuse barely mustered three points against Duke last time out; however, Collins finished with 229 passing yards and a 64.8% completion percentage on 37 pass attempts. The sophomore should see a significant increase in his scoring efficiency against a very beatable Mustangs’ secondary. 

This is a true value play, and an indictment of the Mustangs’ defense. We’re backing the Orange to pull off one of the most unexpected upsets in Week 6, knocking off SMU at home. Bettors can insulate that position by making a play on the over.

Best Bet: Syracuse +520, Over 58.5

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College Football Week 6 Picks: Best Bets and Predictions

• Alabama -10.5
• Houston +11.5
• Syracuse +520
• Syracuse-SMU Over 58.5

There are some lopsided lines in Week 6, but sharp bettors will still recognize the value. We’re getting a piece of Alabama at -10.5, Houston to cover +11.5, Syracuse to cash as huge underdogs, in what should be a high-scoring affair.

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