Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl Prediction | College Football Best Bets

The Independence Bowl committee got up to the line and was ready to snap the ball before an audible was called. The original participants of this year’s bowl game, the Marshall Thundering Herd, witnessed a mass exodus from their program, leaving them no choice but to pull the plug. The 5-7 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs were the next team in line, getting the call to take on the Army Black Knights in Saturday’s showdown. Army has been an unstoppable force this season, narrowly missing out on a perfect season and a shot at a playoff berth. Conversely, Louisiana Tech was the country’s best 5-7 team. They got the unexpected call to replace a Marshall team that decided to enter the transfer portal to try and follow their coach to his new team. Irrespective of the opponent, we knew Army would be up to the task in the Independence Bowl. But things could get ugly against an overmatched Bulldogs side.

Where to Watch Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl

• Location: Independence Stadium (Shreveport, LA) |
• Time: Saturday, December 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
• Spread: Army -14.5 | Moneyline: Army -670 | Total: 43.5

Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl Best Bet ATS: Army -14.5

Army has moved the ball effortlessly all season. As usual, the Black Knights’ option offense has given them a leg up over their competition, averaging 380.7 yards per game. Not surprisingly, 298.9 of those yards have come on the ground, representing 78.5% of their total offensive production. Louisiana Tech’s defensive prowess won’t be advantageous in trying to contain Army’s unrelenting rushing attack. The Bulldogs finished the season with the ninth-ranked total defense, but their standing was inflated against an inferior schedule. L-Tech only took on two Power 4 opponents this season, giving up an average of 407.5 yards per game in those contests. More concerningly, those foes combined for 372 rushing yards while dictating tempo and pace. That’s precisely the factor working against Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl. We don’t expect them to reverse course against the Black Knights. Army cruises in the Independence Bowl.

Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl Best Bet Total: Over 43.5

The total in Saturday’s Independence Bowl has dipped too low. This has become a more common trend in Army games. We see the market over-adjusting to the total, creating an edge in taking the over on a low number. The last two times Army’s total has fallen below 45.5, the Black Knights have exceeded the total. And that’s been the case more often than not this season. Seven times this season, Army’s total has fallen into the 40s or lower; on five occasions, those games have gone over. While less pronounced, there’s also a Louisiana Tech trend worth noting. The Bulldogs have been underdogs on five occasions this season, and they’ve gone over the total in three of those games. We’re betting on those high-scoring trends persisting, with the Independence Bowl eclipsing 43.5 points.

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Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl Best Game Props

1+ Rush Touchdown to be Scored in Each Quarter +290

This game prop is loosely correlated with our play on the total and spread. With Army priced at -14.5 chalk and projected to run away with the Independence Bowl, we anticipate a run-heavy approach from both teams. As a result, we’re betting that at least one rushing touchdown is scored in each quarter. While this bet didn’t hit in Army’s Week 16 battle versus Navy, it did play out in the preceding game versus the Tulane Green Wave. Moreover, the Bulldogs have clearly preferred rushing scores over their recent schedule. Six of Louisiana Tech’s last 10 touchdowns have come via the ground game, including all four of their scores the previous time out. With an increased emphasis on the rushing attack from both teams, we’re making a play on this prop at +290.

Louisiana Tech vs Army Independence Bowl Player Opt-Outs

Louisiana Tech: Jack Turner, QB (transfer portal); Donerio Davenport, RB (transfer portal); Pig Cage, S (transfer portal); Kells Bush, DL (transfer portal); Charlie Robinson, EDGE (transfer portal); Obinna Okeke, EDGE (transfer portal); Adam Lamar, DL (transfer portal); John Locke, TE (transfer portal); David Blay, DL (transfer portal); Luke Wisham, S (transfer portal); BJ Blake, S (transfer portal); Hunter Tipton, TE (transfer portal); Jordon Myles, CB (transfer portal); J’Dan Burnett, DL (transfer portal); Jalen McGaughy, WR (transfer portal); Jayden Gray, EDGE (transfer portal)

Army: Kanye Udoh, RB (transfer portal

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