NCAAF · 1 year ago

Most Overrated Team in Each Power Conference

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

Big 12 - #12 Utah Utes
The Utah Utes are the consensus favorite to win the Big 12 after moving to the league from the PAC-12. They are ranked 12th in the country as Cam Rising returns at quarterback, and they hope to have better health on the defensive side of the ball. What if Rising isn’t fully healthy? What if the Utah defense has taken a step back and is no longer elite? The skill position groups are a bit iffy, particularly at wide receiver and running back. Utah’s issues in 2023 went beyond missing Cam Rising, and there is a bit of revisionist history on how much he’ll be able to change just by returning. Rising is very good, but he’s not a generational talent who can cover up a ton of warts on his own. The Big 12 schedule is full of land mines, and it would not be surprising to see Utah trip up multiple times and not live up to this ranking.

Utah 2024 Win Total: 9.5
Big Ten - #23 USC Trojans
The concept of a team being “overrated” is difficult to gauge. The obvious response to someone saying, “Team X is overrated,” is: “What are they rated”? For this exercise, a team’s rating is determined by its preseason ranking in the AP Poll, and they are overrated or underrated depending on where we believe they will finish the season. The USC Trojans are ranked 23rd, but I do not think they finish the season in the poll, and they earn the moniker of the Big Ten’s most overrated team. The Trojans had a disappointing 2023 season, largely thanks to a defense that surrendered more points than nearly everyone in the country. The Trojans gave up 34.4 points per game, the 13th-worst number in the country. They were just barely ahead of 1-11 Kent State! Lincoln Riley knew it was not good enough, so he changed defensive coordinators. Still, the personnel was not considerably upgraded, and they now have to figure out how to move on from Caleb Williams. Miller Moss is still unproven, and the wide receivers and running backs he’ll be working with are not special. Riley has his work cut out for him in the Trojans’ inaugural season in the Big Ten.

USC Trojans Win Total: 7.5
SEC - #6 Ole Miss Rebels
This might be the best roster they have had in Oxford in decades, and the Rebels are poised to make the expanded College Football Playoff. Have they done enough to justify knocking on the door of the top five? Look at how the Rebels have done against the elite in the SEC: 24-10 loss to Alabama, 52-17 loss to Georgia, 45-20 loss to LSU, 30-24 loss to Alabama. In the past two seasons, Ole Miss has been 3-5 against AP-ranked teams, including a 2022 win against Troy. The Rebels have a ton of firepower and deserve praise as a team that can make noise, but they are in lofty company, ahead of teams like Michigan and Notre Dame. The defense has been remade via the transfer portal, but they still need to prove it on the field before they belong at No. 6 nationally.

Ole Miss 2024 Win Total: 9.5
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ACC - #10 Florida State Seminoles
Florida State is the odds-on favorite for the ACC Championship, and that seems fair, but they are ranked tenth despite facing uncertainty on offense. Jordan Travis was so important to this team that moving to DJ Uiagalelei will be a downgrade unless he takes a significant step forward. Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are both gone, and the Seminoles are counting on young, albeit talented, players to step in and not miss a beat. Trey Benson was a difference-maker at running back and is also gone. The defensive line loses a pair of NFL Draft picks and needs to replicate their production as pass rushers, and the schedule is more challenging than it was in 2023. They could answer all those questions, but it’s a tall order.

Florida State 2024 Win Total: 9.5
Big 12 - #12 Utah Utes
The Utah Utes are the consensus favorite to win the Big 12 after moving to the league from the PAC-12. They are ranked 12th in the country as Cam Rising returns at quarterback, and they hope to have better health on the defensive side of the ball. What if Rising isn’t fully healthy? What if the Utah defense has taken a step back and is no longer elite? The skill position groups are a bit iffy, particularly at wide receiver and running back. Utah’s issues in 2023 went beyond missing Cam Rising, and there is a bit of revisionist history on how much he’ll be able to change just by returning. Rising is very good, but he’s not a generational talent who can cover up a ton of warts on his own. The Big 12 schedule is full of land mines, and it would not be surprising to see Utah trip up multiple times and not live up to this ranking.

Utah 2024 Win Total: 9.5
Big Ten - #23 USC Trojans
The concept of a team being “overrated” is difficult to gauge. The obvious response to someone saying, “Team X is overrated,” is: “What are they rated”? For this exercise, a team’s rating is determined by its preseason ranking in the AP Poll, and they are overrated or underrated depending on where we believe they will finish the season. The USC Trojans are ranked 23rd, but I do not think they finish the season in the poll, and they earn the moniker of the Big Ten’s most overrated team. The Trojans had a disappointing 2023 season, largely thanks to a defense that surrendered more points than nearly everyone in the country. The Trojans gave up 34.4 points per game, the 13th-worst number in the country. They were just barely ahead of 1-11 Kent State! Lincoln Riley knew it was not good enough, so he changed defensive coordinators. Still, the personnel was not considerably upgraded, and they now have to figure out how to move on from Caleb Williams. Miller Moss is still unproven, and the wide receivers and running backs he’ll be working with are not special. Riley has his work cut out for him in the Trojans’ inaugural season in the Big Ten.

USC Trojans Win Total: 7.5