NCAAF · 1 year ago

NCAA Football Betting: 2024 Sun Belt Power Rankings

Grant White

Host · Writer

1. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +270
Odds to Make CFP: +1400

Shawn Clark is ready to lead the Appalachian State Mountaineers to their ninth bowl game in 11 years since joining the FBS ranks and their first Sun Belt Championship since 2019. Thankfully, he has the personnel to make the jump and the betting odds in his favor.

Led by senior quarterback Joey Aguilar, the Mountaineers enter the 2024 campaign as the odds-on favorites to claim their first conference championship under Clark. Aguilar's job will be made easier by the return of his entire receiving corps from last season. Kaedin Robinson was the best of the bunch, going off for 905 yards and ten scores.

Nate Noel may have departed for greener pastures, but Kanye Roberts can fill in as the lead-back. Roberts outpaced Noel in yards per carry and touchdowns and will benefit from the increased touches.

Appalachian State will force Sun Belt teams to keep pace with them, and few can. They are the rightful claim to the top spot in the conference power rankings to open the season.
14. UL Monroe Warhawks
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +35000
Odds to Make CFP: +30000

The history books won't look back fondly on the UL Monroe Warhawks. And that's a damning indictment following 2023's 2-10 showing.

The Warhawks burned through four quarterbacks last year. While Hunter Herring appears to be holding the reigns on offense, his 53.3% completion percentage doesn't inspire any confidence. Along with their conference-worst total defense, there aren't many glimmers of hope that UL Monroe breaks out of its funk in 2024.

You know you have issues when your conference odds are worse than your odds of making the College Football Playoff. Hold your nose and hope for the best for Warhawks' fans; this won't be pretty.
13. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +4800
Odds to Make CFP: +20000

Somehow, things are going from bad to worse for the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. After finishing the year with the worst scoring defense and one of the least effective offenses in the Sun Belt, Southern Miss is left replacing whatever serviceable parts they had on their roster.

The Golden Eagles lost their primary running back, top two pass catchers, quarterback, and several standout defenders. What's left will fail to live up to the already low bar set after last year's performance.

Even with NFL-caliber players, the Golden Eagles will fail to accomplish anything. It will be a long few years before this program returns to relevancy.
12. Georgia State Panthers
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +4800
Odds to Make CFP: +20000

Last season's middling results are a bridge too far for this iteration of the Georgia State Panthers. Needing to replace most of their offensive production from last season, the Panthers failed to replenish their coffers via the transfer portal or recruiting class.

Georgia State features a new quarterback, primary running back, and a re-tooled wide receivers room, replacing all its best players from 2023. While there's slightly more continuity on defense, this team still gave up the third-most yards in the Sun Belt.

It should be considered a successful season if this team eclipses three wins.
11. Georgia Southern Eagles
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +2500
Odds to Make CFP: +20000

Jalen White will have his work cut out for him with the Georgia Southern Eagles this year. The senior running back is one of the lone holdovers from last year's starters and will be the bell cow on offense. But the Eagles' defense will be up to the challenge, implying that many low-scoring games lie on the horizon.

Georgia Southern finished in the middle of the pack in total and scoring defense. But with their core returning for another campaign, we should see them move into the league's top half. Anchored by Marques Watson-Trent, Georgia Southern's defense could round into top-end form this season.

Defense won't win championships in this case, and with one of the most daunting non-conference schedules in the Sun Belt, a bowl game is likely out of reach.
10. Old Dominion Monarchs
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +3000
Odds to Make CFP: +20000

Thanks to their inferior offense, the Old Dominion Monarchs sit in the middle of the Sun Belt Conference power rankings to open the year. Grant Wilson returns for his junior season, and if a reinforced secondary can improve on last year's performance, we could see the Monarchs overachieve relative to preseason expectations.

Old Dominion trots out four new starters in its secondary. While all four come with some level of experience, building chemistry early in the season could be an uphill battle. The Monarchs open the season with games against the South Carolina Gamecocks and Virginia Tech Hokies in two of the first three weeks, testing their resolve early on.

Offense will be an issue for the Monarchs again this season, but their defense won't be a weakness. Unless defensive scoring skyrockets, Old Dom will finish with more losses than wins in 2024.
9. Marshall Thundering Herd
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +1600
Odds to Make CFP: +9500

The Marshall Thundering Herd head into the 2024 season with a breath of uncertainty. Although their defense remains in tip-top shape, there are many unknowns on the offensive side of the ball. How the newcomers respond to the Sun Belt competition will determine the team's success.

A former three-star recruit, Braylon Braxton steps behind a rebuilt offensive line with a handful of new offensive weapons to become familiar with. The Thundering Herd welcome Carl Chester and Elijah Metcalf to the receivers corps, handing the ball off to Jordan Houston in the backfield.

Marshall's defense is reason enough to get excited for the upcoming campaign, but if the offense comes up short, the Thundering Herd will get trampled to the bottom of our power rankings.
8. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +2000
Odds to Make CFP: +9000

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have plenty of time to work themselves into Sun Belt form. Like most Sun Belt teams, the Chanticleers open the campaign with four non-conference matchups and a bye week before their first Sun Belt showdown at the start of October. That should be sufficient time for Ethan Vasko to get familiar with operating head coach Tim Beck's playbook.

Of course, Vasko isn't coming into the season as a true freshman. The redshirt sophomore attempted 122 passes last year, completing 62.3% of his throws for 779 yards and seven touchdowns. Surrounded by upper-classmen, Vasko should step in while improving Coastal Carolina's offensive output.

The Chanticleers need to replicate last year's defensive success if they hope to move back into the championship conversation. If the Chanticleers can get through the challenging part of their schedule from Week 7 to Week 11 with more wins than losses, they'll vastly surpass the implied value of their gambling odds.
7. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +1600
Odds to Make CFP: +8000

It's tough to look past all of the defensive shortcomings of the Arkansas State Red Wolves. But if you can, you'll see an offense on the precipice of breaking out in a big way.

Arkansas State returns all of its top performers on the offensive side of the ball. Sophomore quarterback Jaylen Raynor should take the next steps in his development and is surrounded by his top two pass catchers from last year. Combined with the return of their running back tandem of Ja'Quez Cross and Zak Wallace, the Red Wolves will be eating up yards all season.

Hopefully, some of the game planning involves keeping their defense off the field, but as long as they aren't the liability they were last year, the Red Wolves are ready to surpass expectations.
6. Troy Trojans
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +1600
Odds to Make CFP: +4000

Two-time West Division representatives in the Sun Belt Championship, the Troy Trojans will be looking to pull off the three-peat in 2024. However, their path to Championship Weekend becomes more obstructed as Gerad Parker takes over as a first-year head coach for the departed Jon Sumrall.

A depleted roster amplifies those concerns. The Trojans lost their starting quarterback, lead running back, top receiver, and top two tacklers. While many of the faces are familiar with the program, they could face challenges adapting to an unfamiliar playbook.

Whether this team returns to the Sun Belt Championship Game for the third straight year depends on how quickly Parker can convince a young roster to adopt new philosophies. As it stands, the outlook is cloudy.
5. South Alabama Jaguars
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +1200
Odds to Make CFP: +3300

Defense reigned supreme for the South Alabama Jaguars in 2023, and they are poised for a more stout effort this season. Still, concerns on offense limit the Jaguars' upper potential as they look to remain bowl-eligible for the third straight year.

Virtually all of Gio Lopez's reps came in on mop-up duty last year, but now the redshirt freshman has the keys to the offense. Lopez was effective in limited action, completing 41 of 61 pass attempts for 475 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Jaguars quarterback must limit those mistakes to give South Alabama the best chance of overcoming the odds and making a run to the conference championship.

Everyone should like the Jaguars defense, and there's plenty of optimism surrounding their offense. If Lopez pulls it together, South Alabama could be the belle of the ball come December.
4. James Madison Dukes
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +700
Odds to Make CFP: +2500

No team in the Sun Belt lost more than the James Madison Dukes this offseason. Fresh off an 11-2 season and the best record in the East Division, the Dukes are back to square one as they look to reload instead of rebuild.

James Madison will have no fewer than six new starters on both sides of the ball when the season kicks off. While they were busy in the transfer portal, prioritizing upper-classmen with experience, there are no guarantees it all comes together for the Dukes to start the season.

Surely, first-year head coach Bob Chesney will trot out a competitive program, but we don't think they'll be as close to the Championship Game as the betting odds imply. That will hurt so much more now that the Dukes are in their first year of eligibility to compete for the Sun Belt Championship.
3. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +550
Odds to Make CFP: +2000

The betting market is suspiciously high on a Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns side that still has much to prove. While it's likely a reflection of a weak West Division, the Ragin' Cajuns likely don't have a path to the Sun Belt Championship Game this season.

Louisiana faces a daunting schedule, taking on the best teams in the conference. A showdown against the Appalachian State Mountaineers puts the Ragin' Cajuns at a disadvantage, while their undoing might come in a road game against the Texas State Bobcats.

Don't be fooled by the betting prices; meaningful development is the best Louisiana fans can hope for.
2. Texas State Bobcats
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +360
Odds to Make CFP: +1300

The Texas State Bobcats open as the presumptive favorites to represent the West Division in the Sun Belt Championship, and for good reason.

Jordan McCloud takes over under center after his breakout campaign with the James Madison Dukes, with the Bobcats' best players returning for another season. Joey Hobert paces the receivers corps while Ismail Mahdi is looking to improve on last year's 1,331 rushing yard total.

The biggest concerns lie on the defensive side of the ball, as Texas State looks to improve on its beleaguered 414.5 yards and 33.8 points per game allowed in 2023. A trio of senior transfers point them in the right direction, but it might not be enough to topple the conference.
1. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +270
Odds to Make CFP: +1400

Shawn Clark is ready to lead the Appalachian State Mountaineers to their ninth bowl game in 11 years since joining the FBS ranks and their first Sun Belt Championship since 2019. Thankfully, he has the personnel to make the jump and the betting odds in his favor.

Led by senior quarterback Joey Aguilar, the Mountaineers enter the 2024 campaign as the odds-on favorites to claim their first conference championship under Clark. Aguilar's job will be made easier by the return of his entire receiving corps from last season. Kaedin Robinson was the best of the bunch, going off for 905 yards and ten scores.

Nate Noel may have departed for greener pastures, but Kanye Roberts can fill in as the lead-back. Roberts outpaced Noel in yards per carry and touchdowns and will benefit from the increased touches.

Appalachian State will force Sun Belt teams to keep pace with them, and few can. They are the rightful claim to the top spot in the conference power rankings to open the season.
14. UL Monroe Warhawks
Sun Belt Championship Odds: +35000
Odds to Make CFP: +30000

The history books won't look back fondly on the UL Monroe Warhawks. And that's a damning indictment following 2023's 2-10 showing.

The Warhawks burned through four quarterbacks last year. While Hunter Herring appears to be holding the reigns on offense, his 53.3% completion percentage doesn't inspire any confidence. Along with their conference-worst total defense, there aren't many glimmers of hope that UL Monroe breaks out of its funk in 2024.

You know you have issues when your conference odds are worse than your odds of making the College Football Playoff. Hold your nose and hope for the best for Warhawks' fans; this won't be pretty.