No. 12 Notre Dame vs No. 25 Navy Week 9 Prediction | College Football Picks Today, Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
There’s always something special when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish take to the field against the Navy Midshipmen. But nobody could have predicted a game of this magnitude at the start of the season. Navy has vaulted itself into the Top 25 and put itself in the playoff conversation with an undefeated start to the season. That was the position the Fighting Irish were expected to be in until an early-season loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies de-railed their aspirations. Now, both teams are desperately clamoring for a win to prove they deserve a playoff spot come January.
Where to Watch Notre Dame vs Navy
- Location: MetLife Stadium
- Time: Saturday, October 26 at 12 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ABC
- Spread: Notre Dame -14 | Moneyline: Notre Dame -550 | Total: 50.5
Notre Dame vs Navy Best Bet ATS: Navy +14
Both teams’ success this season is predicated on clock management and the ground game, making it hard for either team to run away with this one. Notre Dame has three top rushers, who should all feature heavily in the game-planning versus Navy. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have formed a stout two-headed backfield, while Riley Leonard has used his legs more effectively than his arm this season. The senior quarterback averages 6.1 yards per carry on 75 rushing attempts while mustering just 6.7 through the air on 177 throws. As we all know, rushing the ball is almost the only thing we can expect from Navy. The Midshipmen already feature five players with over 150 rushing yards, with eight players hitting double-digit rush attempts on the season. This possession-drive approach from both teams limits the number of drives we’ll see and should help Navy stay within two touchdowns on Saturday afternoon.
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Notre Dame vs Navy Best Bet Total: Under 50.5
Navy’s over/under record isn’t indicative of what to expect in Week 9. The Midshipmen have exceeded the total in all six games this season while taking on inferior programs in the Group of 5. They’ll face a much stiffer challenge against a Notre Dame side that has built an identity around stout football. The Fighting Irish limit opponents to an average of 279.0 yards per game, seventh-fewest in the country. Predictably, that correlates with an elite-scoring defense. Notre Dame has held opponents to 11.9 points per game, third-fewest in the FBS. Consequently, they’ve stayed under the total in four of seven outings this season, a trend that should persist into Saturday’s pivotal showdown.
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Notre Dame vs Navy Best Player Props
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jeremiyah Love Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Three players sharing the carrying duties puts Jeremiyah Love in a challenging spot on Saturday. The sophomore has been a regular part of the rotation, but we don’t think he’ll have the workload to eclipse 65.5 rushing yards against Navy. Take a look at Love’s most recent performances. Over the past four games, the halfback hasn’t eclipsed 60 rushing yards. Further, he’s been in a well-balanced workshare over that stretch, going north of 11 carries just once while averaging 10.5 rushing attempts per game. That leaves Love with just 4.4 yards per carry across the four-game sample, negatively impacting his outlook against Navy. While the Midshipmen have been susceptible to the run, a diminished workload and ineffective running limits Love’s outlook on Saturday. We expect him to come up short of 65.5 rushing yards in this pivotal Top 25 clash.
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