NCAAF · 38 minutes ago

Predicting the Top 10 Games With College Football Playoff Implications in Week 11

Grant White

Host · Writer

(12) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (25) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, November 14 - 9:30 pm EST
Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK

Not to overstate things, but the fate of the Big 12 Championship Game could be determined by this outcome. The Texas Tech Red Raiders sit 5-1 in conference play, giving them a slight advantage over a group of five teams at 4-2. Included in that group are the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Irrespective of outcome, this season has already been a monumental success for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys re-entered the Top 25 for the first time since 2024, and have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Their success has been driven by their offensive acumen, with the Cowboys ranking among the best passing offenses in the country. They've gone over 49 points in three straight and should put up another crooked number against the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech couldn't shut off a light switch, let alone OK State's passing attack. The Red Raiders sit second-last in the FBS, getting hammered for 308.0 passing yards per game.

If West Virginia can hang 48 on Texas Tech, Oklahoma State should have no problem surpassing that. We've got another upset in Stillwater.

Predicted Outcome: Oklahoma State 52 - Texas Tech 49
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (4) UCLA Bruins
Friday, November 13 - 9 pm EST
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA

The UCLA Bruins are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the country. We like their chances of maintaining their immaculate record against the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Historically, an astute offensive team, the Bruins deserve a ton of credit for their defensive presence. They sit in the top 10 in total defense and scoring defense, holding opponents to just 264.7 yards and 14.1 points per game. Predictably, those numbers look even better at home.

Illinois has rattled off wins in four straight, but has looked susceptible against the pass. They give up an average of 247.8 passing yards per game, a weakness that can be exploited by Ty Dieffenbach and the Bruins' aerial assault.

Big Ten games are rarely blowouts. Still, this should be a comfortable margin for UCLA.

Predicted Outcome: UCLA 23 - Illinois 13
(13) Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. SMU Mustangs
Saturday, November 14 - 12 pm EST
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Dallas, TX

This is an uncomfortable spot for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Coming off a convincing win over FCS Merrimack, the Demon Deacons need to dial up the intensity in a crucial test versus the SMU Mustangs.

Wake Forest and SMU have similar profiles. Both excel on offense without giving up much on defense. Wake is vulnerable on the ground, but the Mustangs don't have an elite run game to tilt the scales in their favor. The Demon Deacons like to air it out, which won't be an easy task against SMU's elite secondary. In short, the winner will be determined by the team that makes the most of their offensive possessions. In that regard, we give the visitors a slight edge.

There's likely only one ACC spot in this year's CFP. If Wake Forest hopes to claim it, they need to get past the Mustangs. Demon Deacons in a nail-biter.

Predicted Outcome: Wake Forest 31 - SMU 28
(8) Tennessee Volunteers vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, November 14 - 3 pm EST
Kyle Field
College Station, TX

It's tough to get a good read on the Tennessee Volunteers. We've seen them barely keep their heads above water against bottom-tier teams, only to excel versus premier competition. Given their propensity to play to their opponent's level, this could be a prime spot for an upset for the Texas A&M Aggies.

The Aggies' Achilles heel is their offensive execution. Marcel Reed hasn't been the x-factor many expected him to be. Still, he's showing signs of revival in the latter stages of the campaign. The senior pivot is coming off a 251-yard effort last time out and has completed 61.0% of his passes over his past three.

The Vols have allowed 210 or more passing yards in two of their three road games this season. We also saw them get burned by dual-threat LaNorris Sellers two weeks ago.

Sadly, we're predicting a third loss for Tennessee in this one. They lack the offensive firepower to break through the Aggies' defense, and we don't trust their offense on the road.

Predicted Outcome: Texas A&M 17 - Tennessee 14
(22) Missouri Tigers vs. (1) Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 14 - 3:30 pm EST
Sanford Stadium
Athens, GA

We can't rationalize the Missouri Tigers' inclusion in the national rankings. We're betting this Week 11 showdown versus the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs is their swan song.

Mizzou has looked completely outmatched by premier competition. They've lost to Texas and Ole Miss in two of the last three weeks, giving up a combined 65 points in those contests. Surely, Georgia will have no problem imposing itself on the visiting Tigers at Sanford Stadium.

The Tigers' defense is crumbling. Giving up an average of 395.7 yards per game over their last three, we predict the Bulldogs will make short work of their guests.

Predicted Outcome: Georgia 38 - Missouri 20
(18) USC Trojans vs. (9) Indiana Hoosiers
Saturday, November 14 - 3:30 pm EST
Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, IN

Arguably, the USC Trojans' matchup against the Indiana Hoosiers will have the biggest impact on the CFP picture heading into Week 12. A win for USC could leave six teams tied for second in the conference at 5-2.

The Trojans' strength is on offense. In particular, USC extracts maximum value from its passing attack, which could pose a problem for the Hoosiers. Indiana has yet to be tested by a passing attack as proficient as the Trojans. The closest comparable is Ohio State, which managed 235 passing yards and two touchdowns at Memorial Stadium back in Week 7.

USC isn't an elite defensive team, but the Trojans stack up well against the run. If the visitors can build a lead, we don't trust Josh Hoover to pose any real threat to USC's secondary. We've got another upset loaded in this one.

Predicted Outcome: USC 24 - Indiana 20
Baylor Bears vs (10) BYU Cougars
Saturday, November 14 - 3:30 pm EST
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, UT

The score didn't go the BYU Cougars' way in last week's Holy War, but the boxscore revealed a more compelling narrative. The Cougars should have no problem roaring past the Baylor Bears on Saturday.

Despite the loss, BYU outgained and outpossessed Utah. If not for the four unexpected turnovers, Week 10's Big 12 showdown would have resulted in a very different outcome. Ball security will be at the forefront of Saturday's effort, as the Cougars look to get back to their winning ways and assert themselves as a legitimate playoff contender.

Baylor's offense won't gain much traction at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Lacking a capable defense, BYU should cruise to victory.

Predicted Outcome: BYU 28 - Baylor 17
Florida Gators vs. (11) Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, November 14 - 6:15 pm EST
Kroger Field
Lexington, KY

The Kentucky Wildcats got an uncomfortable wake-up call in Week 10. Ranked sixth and taking on Tennessee, Kentucky couldn't get anything going against the Volunteers. This is their opportunity to validate that they belong in the playoffs.

Last week notwithstanding, the Wildcats have been a solid offensive team. They've gone north of 31 points in five of their last seven games, averaging a margin of victory of 10.1 points. Reflected in that is their better-than-expected defense, which has held some elite offenses at bay.

Florida has been exposed in recent weeks. The Gators' offense has looked toothless, while their defense is one of the worst in the conference.

Expect some offensive fireworks. We're chalking this one up as a win for Kentucky.

Predicted Outcome: Kentucky 45 - Florida 42
(6) Texas Longhorns vs. (21) LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 14 - 7:30 pm EST
Tigers Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA

The LSU Tigers are hanging around the playoff picture, but another loss would relegate them to a meaningless bowl game. The Tigers need to be at their best if they hope to get past the Texas Longhorns in Week 11.

Statistically, LSU holds a substantive advantage. Both defenses have excelled, ranking in the top 10 in total and top 20 in scoring defense rankings. However, the same can't be said about their offenses. LSU has been a much more proficient squad on offense, putting up north of 500 yards per game to the Longhorns' 363.8.

The Tigers have more fight in them than they showed last week. We expect them to make amends for that dismal performance.

Predicted Outcome: LSU 27 - Texas 24
(2) Utah Utes vs. (23) Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, November 14 - 7:30 pm EST
Casino Del Sol Stadium
Tucson, AZ

The Utah Utes extended their unbeaten streak to nine games with last week's triumph over the BYU Cougars. Sadly, we think that comes to an end against the Arizona Wildcats in Week 11.

As previously noted, Utah's win wasn't as convincing as the score implies. The Utes mustered just 330 yards of total offense, despite being insulated by a raucous home crowd at Rice-Eccles Stadium. They were down at the half and needed to hold BYU scoreless over the final two quarters to emerge victorious. We saw the same thing against Houston a few weeks prior, with Utah scoring 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to punctuate its come-from-behind win.

Utah can't afford to make the same mistakes game after game and expect to emerge with a win. Arizona's offense is up to 470.3 yards per game at home, which could put the Utes on their heels from the get-go. This time, we don't think the Utes have enough gas in the tank to finish off the comeback.

Predicted Outcome: Arizona 34 - Utah 32
(12) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (25) Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, November 14 - 9:30 pm EST
Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK

Not to overstate things, but the fate of the Big 12 Championship Game could be determined by this outcome. The Texas Tech Red Raiders sit 5-1 in conference play, giving them a slight advantage over a group of five teams at 4-2. Included in that group are the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Irrespective of outcome, this season has already been a monumental success for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys re-entered the Top 25 for the first time since 2024, and have an outside shot at a playoff berth. Their success has been driven by their offensive acumen, with the Cowboys ranking among the best passing offenses in the country. They've gone over 49 points in three straight and should put up another crooked number against the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech couldn't shut off a light switch, let alone OK State's passing attack. The Red Raiders sit second-last in the FBS, getting hammered for 308.0 passing yards per game.

If West Virginia can hang 48 on Texas Tech, Oklahoma State should have no problem surpassing that. We've got another upset in Stillwater.

Predicted Outcome: Oklahoma State 52 - Texas Tech 49
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (4) UCLA Bruins
Friday, November 13 - 9 pm EST
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA

The UCLA Bruins are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the country. We like their chances of maintaining their immaculate record against the Illinois Fighting Illini.

Historically, an astute offensive team, the Bruins deserve a ton of credit for their defensive presence. They sit in the top 10 in total defense and scoring defense, holding opponents to just 264.7 yards and 14.1 points per game. Predictably, those numbers look even better at home.

Illinois has rattled off wins in four straight, but has looked susceptible against the pass. They give up an average of 247.8 passing yards per game, a weakness that can be exploited by Ty Dieffenbach and the Bruins' aerial assault.

Big Ten games are rarely blowouts. Still, this should be a comfortable margin for UCLA.

Predicted Outcome: UCLA 23 - Illinois 13