SEC Championship Game Preview: (3) Georgia vs (9) Alabama Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The SEC was an unadulterated bloodbath from start to finish this season. Twelve of the 16 teams were prominently ranked at one point this season, and seven different teams had a path to the Championship Game in Week 14. Yet, here we are in Championship Weekend, and the Georgia Bulldogs will be taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide for conference supremacy.
Check out our SEC Championship Game preview, including our best bets for Saturday’s matchup!
Where to Watch (3) Georgia Bulldogs vs (9) Alabama Crimson Tide
- Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Location: Atlanta, GA
- Where to Watch: ABC
- Time: Saturday 4:00 p.m. ET
- Spread: UGA -2.5 | Total: 48.5
- Moneyline: UGA -135 | ALA +115
When these teams met way back in Week 5, Alabama escaped with a 24-21 win at Sanford Stadium. If they hope to reclaim their pedestal atop the SEC, the Crimson Tide will need to overcome the Bulldogs in an even more hostile environment, Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Considering both teams’ deteriorating offensive metrics, this will be a hard-fought game from start to finish.
While both teams operate top-end offenses, they made their mark with their imposing defenses this season. Georgia ranked 13th overall and 12th in scoring defense, allowing 290.8 yards and 16.7 points. Moreover, they stepped up their play toward the end of the regular season. The Bulldogs held their last three opponents to a combined 22 points, though one of those games was against Group of Five foe Charlotte.
Alabama was even more proficient throughout the regular season, allowing just 282.2 yards and 16.5 points per game, ranking 12th and 11th, respectively. But as good as they were throughout, we saw a slight decline in their metrics toward the tail end of the campaign. Auburn hung 411 yards on the Crimson Tide last time out, bringing Bama’s in-conference average up to 327.3 yards allowed per game.
Georgia and Alabama will both look to their respective defenses to keep things close on Saturday. With more emphasis on defense, we predict this game will come up short of the total. The Crimson Tide pulled off the dramatic upset at Sanford Stadium earlier in the campaign, but we don’t think they can waltz into Mercedes-Benz Stadium and steal another win. We see immense value on the Bulldogs’ moneyline, as well.
Best Bet: UGA-ALA Under 48.5, Georgia -135
If the Bulldogs hope to pull off the SEC Championship Game heist, they need Gunner Stockton to be at his best. Thankfully, we’re anticipating a sharp increase in efficiency in Week 15, predicting the junior will be UGA on his back in this home-friendly tilt.
Stockton has been much less efficient over the past couple of weeks. Over his last two games, the Bulldogs’ quarterback has completed 28-of-42 passes for 266 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. That puts him at just 6.2 yards per pass attempt, representing a significant drop from his 7.7-yard season-long average. With that, Stockton is a natural progression candidate heading into Championship Weekend and beyond.
Assuredly, Zachariah Branch will be the primary focus in coverage, limiting his potential. Still, we’ve seen Noah Thomas become a more focal point on offense in recent weeks, making him an ideal dark horse touchdown scorer. After earning just 11 targets through the first six games of the season, Thomas has been targeted four or more times in three of the last four. Across that sample, he’s pulled down 11 of his 16 targets, accounting for 178 of his 254 receiving yards and three of his four touchdowns.
Thomas is a prime touchdown scorer in the SEC Championship Game. He’s seen a dramatic increase in usage and workload, becoming a reliable safety valve for Stockton. While Branch is running into double coverage, Thomas will be breaking off routes against inferior cornerbacks. Target him as an anytime touchdown scorer on Saturday.
Best Bet: Noah Thomas Any Time Touchdown Scorer +240
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SEC Championship Game Best Bets: Georgia vs Alabama
- UGA-ALA Under 48.5
- Georgia -135
- Noah Thomas Any Time Touchdown Scorer +240
The SEC Championship Game is always one of the most dramatic contests in Championship Weekend. We’re betting that’s the case again on Saturday, with the Bulldogs besting the Crimson Tide in a low-scoring affair. Georgia will need contributions from everyone, including Noah Thomas, as an anytime touchdown scorer.
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