South Florida vs San Jose State Hawai’i Bowl Prediction | College Football Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The annual Hawai’i Bowl festivities kick off on Christmas Eve. This year’s contest pits the San Jose State Spartans against the South Florida Bulls in what should be an epic battle of strengths. The Spartans operated one of the most efficient passing attacks in the country this season, averaging 325.3 yards per game. South Florida employed a more balanced attack but was equally proficient in moving the ball downfield. The Bulls averaged 418.1 yards per game, with 226.8 coming through the air and 191.3 coming via the ground game. With neither team operating a proficient defense, the Hawai’i Bowl will surely be one of the most high-octane games of the holiday season.
Where to Watch South Florida vs San Jose State Hawai’i Bowl
- Location: Clarence T. C. Chang Athletics Complex
- Time: Tuesday, December 27 at 8 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: ESPN
- Spread: San Jose State -2.5 | Moneyline: San Jose State -142 | Total: 63.5
South Florida vs San Jose State Hawai’i Bowl Best Bet ATS: San Jose State -2.5
San Jose State vastly overachieved relative to preseason prognostications. The team lost most of their skilled starters last offseason, casting doubt on their ability to compete in 2024. However, the Spartans responded by going 7-5 and earning their third straight bowl bid. While their record against the spread was a more modest 6-6, the MWC competitors always performed best as favorites. The Spartans went 5-0 as betting chalk this season, covering the spread in three. While they failed to cover a couple of hefty spreads, their margin of victory in those contests was 11.2 points. USF finished the season with an identical 6-6 record against the spread, but they were much less proficient as the campaign continued. Over the season’s final nine games, South Florida finished with a sub-optimal 3-6 record against the spread. Moreover, they were just 2-4, covering the number as underdogs. Those pronounced trends carry these teams in opposite directions heading into the Hawai’i Bowl. As a result, we like the Spartans’ chances of covering a modest -2.5 on Tuesday night.
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South Florida vs San Jose State Hawai’i Bowl Best Bet Total: Over 63.5
We’re making a contrarian play on the total. The under in the Hawai’i Bowl has been bought down to -114, but our analysis supports that defense should be in short supply. South Florida had one of the worst pass defenses in the country, giving up an average of 278.7 yards per game. That ineffectiveness plays into San Jose State’s strength as a pass-first school. Still, the Spartans were ineffective at preventing teams from gaining yards through the air or on the ground. Worse, their coverage deteriorated as the season progressed, with SJ State’s last three opponents averaging 407.7 yards per game. That makes them susceptible to the Bulls’ well-rounded attack, as they poke holes in an already porous defense. The betting price may lead you toward the under, but we see this one going over the total.
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South Florida vs San Jose State Hawai’i Bowl Best Game Props
San Jose State Spartans Team Total Over 33.5
Our preferred prop for the Hawai’i Bowl correlates with the over. San Jose State is due for an increase in scoring efficiency heading into its final game of the year. The Spartans totaled 34 points in their final regular season game, foreshadowing what to expect against USF. In their two preceding games, San Jose State saw a dip in production against the top-ranked Boise State Broncos and UNLV Rebels. However, they’ll face little resistance against the Bulls. South Florida was utterly ineffective at defending in the final stages of the regular season. They gave up an average of 458.3 yards and 29.7 points per game while taking on three schools with a combined record of 13-23. Surely, those metrics will increase as they try and stop a vastly superior Spartans side. San Jose State should have no problem eclipsing 33.5 points in this year’s Hawai’i Bowl.
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