College Football Long Shots With Playoff Betting Value

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Long-Shot Playoff Paths for UCLA, Iowa, Houston and Notre Dame

UCLA and Iowa appear to have advantageous schedules for the remainder of the season. UCLA is undefeated and does not face another ranked team before playing USC in the final game of the season. Iowa has one loss to Ohio State and also has a manageable path ahead.

Those schedules make both teams intriguing long-shot options. UCLA is listed at 8000 and Iowa at 10000 to win the national championship. Neither may ultimately win it all, but a team must reach the playoff to have a chance. If either team gets into the field and wins a game, there could be an opportunity to take a buyout and walk away with a profit.

That may be more appealing than backing a team such as Oregon at 6500 when another loss could end its playoff hopes. Florida was also listed around 5000.

Notre Dame faces a critical game against Miami. With so many teams packed together in the playoff race, another loss would create serious trouble. If Marcus Freeman’s mantra is “leave no doubt,” Notre Dame cannot afford to create more doubt. An 11-1 record would provide the most comfortable path. A win over Miami followed by a loss to SMU might still leave Notre Dame in decent shape, but the Miami matchup remains pivotal.

UCLA enters its game against Michigan State as a two-touchdown favorite and faces Nevada the following week. Minnesota could present a tricky matchup, while UCLA must also visit the Big House to face Michigan with Tommy Carr before closing the season against USC. The path is manageable but not guaranteed. UCLA should have an opportunity to remain undefeated entering November, when the first playoff rankings are revealed.

Houston offers another example of long-shot value. One bettor took Houston at 180-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff, not because he necessarily expects Houston to win the title, but because the bet could create an opportunity for a profitable exit.

Houston’s path continues against Utah as a 6.5-point road underdog. If Houston runs the table and finishes 12-1, with its only loss coming on the road against Texas Tech, it could potentially avenge that defeat in the Big 12 championship. In that scenario, even a playoff bye may not be out of the realm of possibility.

Long-shot predictions do not always work out. A preseason pick of Lincoln Kienholz to win the Heisman felt promising for about two weeks before falling apart. Still, considering these scenarios is part of the appeal. Every Friday and Saturday night brings the possibility of upsets that can reshape the entire college football landscape and change the outlook by Sunday.