Indiana vs. Minnesota Prediction: Bet the Big Ten Under

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Indiana-Minnesota Under Stands Out Amid Injuries and Offensive Struggles

Indiana is favored by 20.5 points against Minnesota, with the total set at 40.5. A 21.5-point spread appeared in the market last night for anyone looking to back Minnesota, but that number appears to be gone.

There is a lean toward Indiana, but Hoover’s injury makes the spread difficult to play. He is legitimately hurt, and if the injury is that serious, Indiana could sit him and still win this game. Getting involved with an injured quarterback creates unnecessary uncertainty.

The preferred play is the under. The under hit comfortably in Indiana’s games against Ohio State and Michigan, and there is little reason to expect the matchup with Minnesota to be different. The total is 40.5, while Minnesota ranks 125th nationally in total offense, 132nd in rushing and 113th in third-down conversions.

Indiana also has one of the country’s best defenses, allowing 12 points per game to lead the Big Ten and rank second nationally. The Hoosiers held Ohio State to 19 points and 313 yards, then limited Michigan to six points and 212 yards in an overtime game.

Indiana’s offense remains the concern. Hoover has not played particularly well, injuries are an issue, and the team may consider resting players. Minnesota does not have the same defense as Ohio State or Michigan, but the Gophers beat Iowa 13-10 last week and rank 34th nationally in yards allowed.

These are two strong defensive teams with poor offenses. Indiana has scored 40 points only against Rutgers. Minnesota averages 32 minutes of possession, while Indiana averages 29, pointing toward another grind-it-out Big Ten game.

Indiana’s schedule was also questioned. The Hoosiers open with three easy games, and their Big Ten schedule does not appear to include many difficult opponents. Indiana is clearly a good team, but its path repeatedly looks favorable when the schedule is examined before the season.

The combination of strong defenses, limited offenses and Hoover’s injury makes the under the favorite play in Indiana-Minnesota.