Miami vs. Florida State Betting Picks and Predictions

Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From SportsGrid College Football Today

Miami’s Offense Takes Center Stage Against Struggling Florida State

With the line moving toward Florida State and reaching 19.5 points in the market, Dave believes the rivalry game could get ugly in Miami. The Canes are coming off a bye, and this matchup always carries significance because many of the players competed against one another in high school before choosing Miami, Florida State or Florida.

Historically, the close games have come when both programs were highly ranked. When one team has been significantly better than the other, the matchup has often become a blowout. Florida State lost by only six points last year, but that was a 3-1 team ranked 18th after an upset of Alabama. Since that Miami game, Florida State is 5-8 and is now a shell of that team.

Florida State’s defense ranks 122nd in the country while allowing 410 yards per game. The Seminoles are 114th against the pass at 244 yards per game and 102nd against the run. They allowed 50 points to Alabama and 44 to Louisville.

Miami enters averaging 49.5 points and 555 yards per game. Rather than laying close to 21 points, Dave prefers Miami’s team total over 37.5. He also likes Darian Mensa to exceed 269.5 passing yards against Florida State’s struggling pass defense.

The opposing view acknowledged that Florida State appeared capable of dominating Louisville before losing 44-20. That result initially made a Miami cover seem straightforward, but further examination suggested the line may have moved slightly too high and that some respected projections showed value on Florida State.

Despite that possibility, there was no willingness to bet Florida State or the game itself. The concern was that this matchup had the makings of an unexpected result in which Mario lets the game become much closer than anticipated and Norvell holds a third-quarter lead he does not deserve.

Dave remained confident in Miami, predicting a 47-17 victory and a 30-point rout.