UNC vs. Miami Preview: Can Tar Heels Cover the Spread?

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North Carolina Backed to Cover Against Miami in Potential Look-Ahead Spot

North Carolina’s matchup with Miami lost some shine after UNC fell to Syracuse in overtime, dropping to 4-3. Still, that record represents progress for a program that won four games last year.

UNC is also only a couple of plays away from a much stronger record. The Tar Heels held a lead against Clemson before lightning stopped the game, but Clemson took control after play resumed. North Carolina also lost in overtime to Syracuse. Good teams win those close games, while average teams often do not, which helps explain the 4-3 record.

The Tar Heels opened the season by beating TCU in Ireland and played Notre Dame closely, particularly in the first half. A victory over Miami would be Bill Belichick’s biggest win at UNC and one of his most significant victories in years.

Miami enters as a 14.5-point favorite and is capable of winning comfortably. Its offense leads the nation in scoring and yards, but its pass defense ranks 107th. North Carolina has a passing attack that could exploit that weakness, along with a defense ranked 20th in the red zone and a disciplined team that commits the fourth-fewest penalties in the nation.

Miami has not always played with the same discipline and can commit seven, eight or nine penalties in a game. If UNC can force Miami to stall in the red zone and take advantage through the air, the Tar Heels could remain competitive.

This is also a possible look-ahead spot for Miami, with a trip to South Bend coming next week for a matchup between No. 1 and No. 5. Miami must first travel to Chapel Hill, where North Carolina will have an opportunity to deliver a statement performance.

Miami could still win 40-10 without surprising anyone, but taking North Carolina plus 14.5 points is appealing. The Tar Heels have shown they can compete with strong opponents, and even if Miami wins, UNC could keep the game close enough to cover, potentially with a late backdoor score.