2024 NFL Fantasy Football: Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons’ Run Game with Betting Insights

Robinson, the Falcons’ first-round draft pick in 2023, is quickly establishing himself as one of the most exciting young running backs in the league. His combination of vision, power, and receiving ability has made him a must-start in all fantasy formats. In this column, we’ll break down Robinson’s fantasy outlook, his involvement in the Falcons’ offense, and explore betting opportunities around his production in Week 2 and beyond.

Bijan Robinson’s Usage: Encouraging Signs for Fantasy Managers

Robinson’s Week 1 usage was promising for fantasy managers. Although veteran Tyler Allgeier remained involved, particularly near the goal line, Robinson still had a significant role in both the rushing and passing game. He racked up five receptions in the opener, a strong indicator of how the Falcons plan to use him moving forward. For a running back, that’s impressive volume, and it shows that Robinson is more than just a traditional ball carrier—he’s a dynamic dual-threat option.

Fantasy Outlook: Robinson should remain a key piece of Atlanta’s offensive game plan. Given the Falcons’ run-heavy scheme and their commitment to utilizing their best playmakers, Robinson’s usage as both a runner and receiver makes him a high-end RB1 in fantasy football.

Betting Insight: Robinson’s Reception Total at 4.5 – Is It Too High?

For Week 2, Robinson’s reception total is set at 4.5 receptions, which raises some questions. He hit five receptions in Week 1, so there’s a good chance he can replicate that performance. However, there’s also the possibility that the Falcons won’t need to lean as heavily on their passing game, especially if they build a lead or emphasize the run.

Taking the Over or Under?

If you’re considering the over on this prop, you’re likely banking on the Falcons falling behind early or needing to get Robinson involved in the short passing game due to defensive pressure. His role as a safety valve for quarterback Kirk Cousins could easily lead to four or more receptions, especially against teams with a strong pass rush.

However, 4.5 receptions is a significant number for a running back, and if the game script favors a ground-and-pound approach with Allgeier getting early-down work, Robinson may not hit this target.

Betting Insight: The 4.5 receptions line is fair, but I’d lean under this week, given that the Falcons could focus on their run game against a team like the Philadelphia Eagles. If Robinson were facing a tougher front seven, the over would be more appealing. For now, be cautious, as Atlanta’s offensive strategy could keep the ball on the ground more often than through the air.

Betting on Bijan’s Rushing and Receiving Props

Aside from his reception total, bettors can also look at Bijan Robinson’s rushing and receiving yard props. His total yards from scrimmage could offer good value, as Robinson is the type of player who can break a long run or make defenders miss in open space on screen passes.

Rushing Yard Total

Robinson’s rushing yard prop is typically set around 60-70 yards, depending on the matchup. In Week 1, he shared carries with Allgeier, but still managed to accumulate a healthy number of touches. Against a team like Eagles, who can be vulnerable to the run, Robinson could easily surpass his rushing yard total if the Falcons lean heavily on their ground attack.

Betting Insight: I’d lean over on Bijan’s rushing yard total this week, particularly if you believe the Falcons will control the tempo of the game with their run game. The only hesitation would come if Allgeier takes more than 50% of the carries, but Robinson’s efficiency should still allow him to hit this number.

Total Yards from Scrimmage

If you’re looking for a safer bet, consider Robinson’s total yards from scrimmage. This prop typically combines both rushing and receiving yards and given Robinson’s dual-threat ability, he’s more likely to hit the over on this type of bet. His involvement in the passing game and his explosive playmaking ability make him a candidate to put up big numbers in both phases of the game.

Betting Insight: I like the over on Robinson’s total yards, as his ability to break long plays and his consistent usage should allow him to rack up both rushing and receiving yards. Even with Allgeier involved, Robinson’s total yardage upside is high enough to justify this bet.

Conclusion: Trust Bijan Robinson’s Role, But Monitor His Usage

Robinson is already proving to be a vital part of the Falcons’ offense, and fantasy managers should feel confident in starting him every week. His ability to contribute in both the rushing and passing game makes him one of the most dynamic players in fantasy football.

From a betting perspective, Robinson’s props, particularly his receiving total, should be approached with caution. While he hit five receptions in Week 1, the Falcons’ game script may not always favor the over. However, his total yards from scrimmage remains a strong betting option, as his versatility ensures he’ll have plenty of opportunities to accumulate yards.

Ultimately, Robinson is a player you can trust in fantasy, and he offers intriguing betting opportunities each week. Just be sure to monitor how the Falcons deploy their backfield, as Allgeier’s presence could impact Robinson’s overall production, particularly near the goal line.

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