Dolphins vs Packers TNF Week 13 Predictions | NFL Picks Today, Best Bets

Thanksgiving Day signals the start of the stretch drive in the NFL. The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins both find themselves in heated races. Green Bay has its sight set on the division crown, needing to make up two games over the season’s final six weeks. While the Dolphins won’t be able to catch the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East, they need to make up ground in a crowded wild-card race. With so much at stake and both teams operating at peak efficiency, Thursday’s tilt between the Packers and Fins will undoubtedly be the most entertaining game of the day. 

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Where to Watch Dolphins vs Packers

• Location: Lambeau Field
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where to Watch: NBC, DAZN (Streaming)
• Spread: Packers -3.5 | Moneyline: Packers -176 | Total: 47.5

Dolphins vs Packers Best Bet ATS: Dolphins +3.5

Injuries significantly hampered the Dolphins’ start to the season, but things are going swimmingly more recently. Miami has won three in a row while maximizing production on both sides of the ball. Over that modest stretch, the Fins are up to 30.3 points per game, representing over a ten-point jump relative to their season-long average of 19.5. Still, they remain below last year’s averages, implying that sustained success is anticipated over their coming games. While the Dolphins might not reach the heights of their recent performances, they can contend against a Packers’ side that’s been ineffective at covering spreads. Green Bay is just 1-4 against the spread since Week 7. They were favored in four of those, with last week’s triumph over the San Francisco 49ers representing their only ATS win. Miami is trending in the opposite direction, covering the number in four straight. We’re betting those trends hold steady in Week 13, with Miami staying within a field goal of the Packers.

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Dolphins vs Packers Best Bet Total: Under 48.5

Sustained defensive performances have complemented Miami’s offensive outbursts. Over their last three games, opponents are mustering 308.0 yards per game, on par with their seventh-best season average of 304.5. The Packers can boast of similar performances. Their past three opponents have been held to 297.7 yards and 16.7 points per game. We expect both teams’ defenses to be on point, with this inter-conference battle staying below the 48.5-point total. 

Dolphins vs Giants SNF Best Player Props

De’Von Achane Over 55.5 Rushing Yards and -120 Anytime Touchdown Scorer

As stout as they’ve been, the Packers’ most exploitable vulnerability has been their rush defense. Green Bay has seen a modest increase in the number of rushing yards allowed, and we predict De’Von Achane will take advantage of this. Although the Dolphins’ running back has seen a recent decrease in effectiveness, he’s poised for a bounce-back effort on Thursday. So far this season, Achane is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, a benchmark he’s fallen below in two of the past three. Across that sample, he’s averaging 3.6 yards per carry, putting him well below season and career norms. Moreover, Achane has seen a decrease in his touchdown equity this season despite an increased workload. The second-year pro has found the endzone three times, falling below the eight he had in the same number of games last season. That reflects an inverse relationship with his usage metrics. Achane is averaging 2.6 more carries and 1.6 more targets per game. It’s time for the pendulum to start swinging in the other direction, making Achane a natural progression candidate against the Packers. We’re betting he finds the endzone and eclipses his 55.5 rushing yard total in the Thanksgiving nightcap. 

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