NFL Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Bills vs Texans
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Summer is gone, fall is here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 12, which commences with an AFC affair on Thursday Night Football!
Where to Watch Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
- Stadium: NRG Stadium
- Location: Houston, TX
- Where to Watch: Prime Video
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: BUF -5.5 (-122) | Total: 43.5
- Moneyline: BUF -270 | HOU +220
With both sides coming off dramatic wins last Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5) will meet at NRG Stadium on just four days of rest. Despite playing in separate divisions, we saw this matchup in October 2024; Houston emerged victorious at home, 23-20.
The upcoming bid between the Texans and Bills will present a clash of styles. After 11 weeks, Buffalo has tallied 387.4 total YPG (second best in the NFL) of offense to go with 29.2 PPG (fourth). Conversely, Houston’s defense has held opponents to just 258.1 YPG and 16.3 PPG in 2025, both of which pace the league right now.
I am a firm believer in Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his dominant dual-threat abilities. The reigning AP MVP has already scored 28 all-purpose touchdowns this season, which leads the NFL ahead of Week 12. However, this Thursday night could bring Allen’s most formidable challenge of the year. The Texans’ D employs the sort of athletes that are strong, fast, and explosive.
The most crucial storyline in Houston right now is quarterback C.J. Stroud’s availability. Stroud currently remains in concussion protocol, meaning he will miss his third straight start. Of course, backup Davis Mills (49.9 QBR) will continue to relieve the former OROY, but Mills has contributed just 181.5 YPG passing through four appearances.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bills are laying 5.5 points on the road here. That attracts my interest, given Houston’s less-than-ideal quarterbacking situation. SportsGrid’s model concurs, giving Buffalo a 74% chance to win. From there, Bills -5.5 renders as a four-star play.
Best Bet: Bills -5.5 (-122)
FanDuel currently lists a combined total of 43.5 points for this primetime bid in “Space City." Personally, I like the under in this spot.
The Texans have been profitable for under bettors in 2025. To this point, the under has cashed in six of ten Houston contests. Meanwhile, the Bills are 5-5 in the totals market.
As noted, the Texans’ defense has been stingier than any other unit in points surrendered. I respect what Allen and Buffalo’s offense can do, but I know Houston will win its share of series on that side of the football.
Genuinely, I’d feel different about this approach if Stroud were in action. Given the current state of affairs, under 43.5 points seems the wisest strategy.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 (-110)
Swing for the Fences with SportsGrid’s free daily NFL Game Picks and NFL Prop Picks.
NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Bills vs. Texans
- Bills -5.5 (-122)
- Bills-Texans Over (-110)
Week 12 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!
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