Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks: Kansas City Bounce-Back Bet

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Kansas City Looks to Rebound as Denver Turns to Jonah Coleman

One of the NFL’s undefeated teams fell with a thud last week, as the Chiefs had no chance against the Seattle Seahawks and were crushed.

The Denver Broncos have been living dangerously. They rallied late to win last week, but they have yet to fully come into their own. Under normal circumstances, a Denver team playing well at home would likely be a slight favorite or in a pick’em matchup. However, the Broncos have not shown enough to justify that confidence.

Kansas City should be angry after last week’s performance, making the Chiefs a potentially appealing buy-low opportunity. Betting against Denver at home is difficult because the Broncos have consistently been one of the NFL’s best home betting teams. However, their home-field advantage tends to fade toward the end of October and into November.

With the total at 41.5, the question is whether the defenses will shine again or whether this becomes Kansas City’s get-right spot. The lean is toward the Chiefs because of Denver’s offensive problems, although backing Kansas City at 1.5 does not inspire complete confidence.

Denver also enters a unique situation with RJ Harvey out. That should create a larger role for Jonah Coleman, who had previously gone to injured reserve and was dropped in many fantasy leagues because of roster limitations and a lack of IR spots. Coleman now has an opportunity alongside whatever is left of JK Dobbins in the backfield.

Coleman’s rushing and receiving total of 69.5 is an appealing over, while his 42.5 rushing total is also in play. His touchdown price of +175 suggests that he could be a significant part of the offense. Investing in Coleman through fantasy or wagering is an attractive option.

Bo Nix has been underwhelming throughout the year. His average depth of target and lack of running have been concerns, although he produced a big run in Week 7. That may indicate he is becoming more confident after last year’s broken ankle and feels comfortable enough to run. If so, it could change the dynamic of Denver’s offense.

There is still reason for caution with Coleman because Sean Payton has been unpredictable with his running backs. Another back could emerge, and Payton’s history of creating uncertainty makes it difficult to trust the expected workload until it happens on the field.