Cowboys vs. Packers Pick: Back Dallas as the Underdog

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Cowboys Emerge as a “Close Your Eyes” Pick Against Green Bay

Is it time for the Cowboys to start fooling everybody again? Dallas often struggles when heavily favored, only to surprise in a game it is not expected to win. That pattern makes this week’s road matchup against Green Bay feel like a spot where the Cowboys could pull off another unexpected victory.

The Packers have started to turn their season around and appear to be moving in the right direction. Their receiving combination of Golden and Christian Watson looks formidable, giving Green Bay a passing attack that can open up opposing secondaries. The Packers do not run the ball particularly well, but they can throw it.

With many people off Dallas and backing Green Bay, this could be the Cowboys’ time. Dallas is difficult to trust, but it feels more appealing as an underdog than as a favorite. When the Cowboys should win—at home, on a short week or against a rookie quarterback—they often fail to handle their business.

Now Dallas must travel to Green Bay, a team that has played the Cowboys tough and handed them an embarrassing playoff loss a few years ago. There is no stability in the chaos surrounding Dallas, but the Cowboys at plus 1.5 still appear to be the side to take.

Green Bay’s defense remains unconvincing. Last week featured impressive plays from Love, Watson and Golden as the Packers opened things up against a Bears secondary that could not stop them. The Cowboys have also struggled to stop opponents, but they may still find a way to win.

There may not be much supporting data beyond the familiar pattern: Dallas fails to handle business when it should, then surprises when it seemingly has no business winning. That makes the Cowboys this week’s “close your eyes” special.

The preference is not necessarily based on loving Dallas. It is about being more willing to take the Cowboys as an underdog than as a favorite. Green Bay is playing better, but the close line could suggest that the improvement is not entirely convincing. If the Packers were viewed more strongly, the line might be larger than it is.