Ravens vs. Bills Picks: Back the Over With Lamar Back

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Lamar Jackson’s Return Shapes Ravens-Bills Betting Outlook

Lamar Jackson is expected to return for the Ravens today. Baltimore is one of the NFL’s best teams when he is on the field, but his absence last week showed how much the team struggles without him.

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a bye and favored by three points. That short line creates a potential danger zone for Buffalo. Given the matchup, it raises questions about why the spread is not five, six, or seven points.

Baltimore could keep the game close until the end. Jackson may not be completely healthy, but Buffalo has yet to show it can consistently stop opponents on defense. The Ravens plus the points are appealing, although the preferred play is the over.

Buffalo ranks 30th in points allowed per game, 31st in total yards allowed per game, 31st in passing yards allowed per game, and 15th in rushing yards allowed per game. The Bills are also 27th in third-down conversion rate allowed at 45%.

Those defensive numbers could allow Jackson to be productive even if he is not at full strength. Derrick Henry’s rushing total is set at 80.5 yards, suggesting an expected uptick in his production. Josh Allen’s rushing total, which is around 35.5 yards in most markets, is another potential over.

With two dynamic quarterbacks and Baltimore facing a must-win type of situation, points could be abundant. A healthy DJ Moore returning for the first time in a couple of weeks could also give Allen another weapon and help push the total higher.

Buffalo’s bye should not be treated as a major handicapping factor. Over the past three years, there has been no meaningful difference against the spread between teams coming off a bye and those that are not. Two years ago, teams coming off a bye covered 30% of the time, while this year the rate is slightly above 50%. The data suggests the bye-week narrative should not influence future picks.