NHL · 5 months ago

NHL Thursday Predictions | Red Wings, Flames, Kraken Best Bets

Sportsgrid Staff

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NHL Thursday Predictions | Red Wings, Flames, Kraken Best Bets

Thursday’s NHL Best Bets

Looking for value in tonight’s NHL matchups? We’re highlighting three under-the-radar teams offering strong returns based on recent form and underlying metrics. Let’s break down why the Red Wings, Flames, and Kraken are our top moneyline picks for March 27.

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Ottawa Senators vs Detroit Red Wings

Despite sitting lower in the standings, the Detroit Red Wings have shown more encouraging signs than the Ottawa Senators recently—especially at home. Over their past eight games, the Red Wings have dominated play with a 56.4% expected goals-for rate, ranking fourth-best league-wide during that stretch. Yet, they’ve only won three times, mainly due to finishing variance—making them strong regression candidates.

Ottawa, meanwhile, has cooled off. The Senators have been outplayed in three of their last four games and have just four goals at five-on-five over that span, including two games where they were shut out at even strength. Their offense has clearly hit a wall.

With Detroit trending analytically and Ottawa regressing, the Red Wings offer sharp moneyline value on home ice tonight.

Pick: Red Wings Moneyline (+104)

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Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames

The Dallas Stars might be on a winning streak, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Dallas has been thoroughly outplayed in four straight contests, managing just a 39.8% expected goals-for rating—a bottom-tier figure. Their results have been inflated by unsustainable shooting and goaltending, particularly at five-on-five, where they haven’t allowed a goal in two straight. That’s not likely to continue.

The Calgary Flames, on the other hand, are surging during their playoff chase. They’ve posted a 66.0% expected goals-for rate in two of their last four and have generated over 12 high-danger chances in three of those outings. The offensive pressure is paying off.

With a major analytics edge and momentum on their side, Calgary is undervalued in this spot.

Pick: Flames Moneyline (+118)

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Edmonton Oilers vs Seattle Kraken

The Edmonton Oilers enter this one on the second night of a back-to-back, fresh off a frustrating loss to Dallas. Despite controlling play for stretches, they couldn’t finish—again. The Oilers failed to score at five-on-five and created only nine high-danger chances. Worse yet, they’re likely without Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl tonight.

Seattle, meanwhile, has outplayed opponents in five of their last seven games, including a strong showing against the Oilers last weekend. They posted a 54.3% expected goals-for rate and led the high-danger count 13-10 in that meeting. Still, they’ve dropped four of those five strong efforts.

The Kraken are due for better luck, and tonight’s matchup sets up perfectly against a tired, shorthanded Edmonton squad.

Pick: Kraken Moneyline (+106)

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