SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, March 9

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

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St. Louis Blues vs. New York Rangers
Rangers Moneyline (-210): 5-Star Rating

Two teams heading in opposite directions collide in the Big Apple on Saturday night. Losers of seven of their past ten, the St. Louis Blues have all but abandoned their playoff aspirations. Conversely, the New York Rangers remain the class of the Metropolitan Division, looking for their first division banner since 2014-15. Those waves collide in what’s expected to be a one-sided affair at Madison Square Garden. 

The Blues significantly outlasted their shelf life. So far this season, St. Louis has the third-worst expected goals-for rating in the league. Worse, they’ve fallen below their already atrocious standard more recently. The Blues have been outplayed in all but one of their previous 19 contests, posting a disastrous 37.9% expected goals-for rating over that stretch. That’s substantially below their already ineffective season average of 45.5%.

Not surprisingly, MSG has been a safe haven for the Rangers this year. The Broadway Blueshirts are 21-8-0 in their friendly confines, including 6-1-0 over their past seven. New York has limited its opponents to one goal or fewer in five of those seven contests, giving up an average of 9.0 high-danger chances per game. 

The Rangers are in the running for the President’s Trophy, whereas the Blues are quickly entering a run-out-the-clock situation. The betting line reflects the Rangers’ perceived advantages but is well short of where we project it. That leaves a bettor-friendly advantage in backing the Rangers.

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Red Wings Moneyline (+164): 5-Star Rating

The Detroit Red Wings don’t have time to stew on Friday night’s loss to the Arizona Coyotes, turning around for a Saturday night clash with the Vegas Golden Knights. Vegas has looked out of sorts lately, dropping four straight in advance of this inter-conference affair. We’re anticipating that slide continues against the Red Wings. 

Coincidentally, the Wings have also lost four consecutive games coming into tonight; however, their analytics support they should expect better outcomes. Detroit has outplayed three of its past five opponents, including a decisive 60.1% expected goals-for rating last night. Defense has been the foundation of the Red Wings’ success, as they’ve limited their opponents to an average of 8.2 high-danger chances per game.

The Golden Knights’ metrics are taking them in the opposite direction. Vegas has been outplayed in two of its past three, yielding a cumulative 47.8% expected goals-for rating. Their offensive well has run dry, with the Golden Knights averaging just 6.3 high-danger chances per game, with the team failing to exceed nine in any contest. 

One of these teams’ losing streak will end on Friday. According to our modeling, that should be Detroit. The Red Wings come into tonight’s battle on sturdier analytics footing, and they should escape Sin City with two points. 

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Dallas Stars vs. Los Angeles Kings
Under 6.5 (-138): 5-Star Rating

Two of the stingiest teams in the league renew acquaintances on Saturday night, with the Los Angeles Kings hosting the Dallas Stars. Moreover, both teams come into this Western Conference showdown on reliable under trends, supporting that this should be a low-scoring game. 

For years, the Kings have cemented themselves as one of the top defensive squads in the NHL. Ranking third in high-danger chances allowed and fourth in scoring opportunities, the Kings have accumulated the fifth-best expected goals-against rating in the league. 

Likewise, Dallas’ systems are also predicated on stout defensive alignment. The Stars sit just behind the Kings in scoring and high-danger chances allowed, ranking 11th and sixth, respectively. Predictably, this also correlates with a decreased expected goals-against rating. Through 65 games, the Stars sit sixth in the NHL, with a benchmark of 119.5 at five-on-five.  

We’ve seen both squad wield their defensive superiority unmercifully. The Stars have stayed beneath the total in seven of nine, while the Kings are 7-2-1 to the under over their past ten. We’re betting both trends continue at Crypto.com Arena, with this game easily falling below 6.5 goals.

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