Real Madrid’s 2026 Champions League Win Probability

Real Madrid entered the second leg as overwhelming favourites thanks to a 3–0 first-leg demolition of Manchester City that showcased their clinical finishing and defensive solidity.

Traders were initially concerned that a shock 0–1 home defeat to Getafe in LaLiga might signal a wobble, but a subsequent 4–1 rout of Elche restored confidence.

More importantly, top scorer Kylian Mbappé, who missed the first leg with a knee problem, has been declared fit enough to travel and is “getting better every day,” offering a high-upside catalyst if Madrid need a late goal.

Pessimists point to a long injury list—Jude Bellingham, Éder Militão, and Rodrygo remain sidelined, and full-backs Ferland Mendy, Dani Ceballos, and Álvaro Carreras are also out—as well as ongoing contract tensions with Vinícius Júnior.

Yet the club’s European pedigree and the rarity with which Álvaro Arbeloa’s sides surrender big leads have kept sentiment firmly bullish.

In the market’s eyes, Madrid resemble a blue-chip stock with strong fundamentals but some operational headwinds: a clean early goal in Manchester could see their probability of advancing trade at record highs, while a slow start coupled with defensive frailty might prompt cautious profit-taking.