HOW KALSHI WORKS
Sportsgrid-Staff
What Is Kalshi?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. prediction market where people trade on whether future events will happen. Every market has exactly two outcomes:
Yes or No
Each contract is worth between $0.01 and $0.99, and settles at $1.00 or $0.00.
It’s simple, transparent, and driven entirely by trader opinion.
Opening a Market Page
Each Kalshi market displays:
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The question
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The settlement criteria
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The expiration time
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The current Yes/No prices
Example market:
“Will Team X score 20+ points this week?”
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Yes: 0.63
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No: 0.37
This means the market believes there’s a 63% chance the event happens.
How to Buy and Sell
Buying “Yes” means you think the event will happen.
Buying “No” means you think it will not.
You can also sell your position early — similar to closing a trade.
That means:
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You are not locked in
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You can manage risk
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You can take profit before the event finishes
This is a major difference from sportsbooks.
How Contracts Settle
At expiration:
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If the event happens → Yes contracts pay $1.00
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If the event does not happen → No contracts pay $1.00
Profit = Settlement value – Entry price.
Returning to the Core Idea
You are not “betting” in the sportsbook sense — you are trading the probability of an event.
This is the foundation of prediction markets and the core of the Prediction Market 101 curriculum.
Continue Learning
Return to Prediction Market 101
Next Lesson: Understanding Kalshi Pricing
Related Reading: What Are Kalshi Combos?
