UNDERSTANDING KALSHI PRICING
Sportsgrid-Staff
Price = Probability
If a Yes contract is trading at $0.58, that means:
The market believes there is a 58% chance the event happens.
Prediction markets think in probabilities, not odds.
Converting Prices Into Odds (Sports Bettor Translation)
Sports bettors think in +150, -200, +500 types of odds.
Prediction markets use 0–1 scaled probabilities.
Here’s the mapping:
Price × 100 = Implied Probability
Examples:
-
0.20 → 20%
-
0.75 → 75%
-
0.05 → 5%
Simple and intuitive.
Profit Example
If you buy “Yes” at 0.58 and the event happens:
-
You receive $1.00
-
You paid $0.58
-
Profit = $0.42
-
ROI = 72%
If you sell early at 0.72:
-
You keep the difference
-
You don’t need the final event outcome
This is one of prediction markets’ biggest advantages.
What Makes Prices Move?
Just like financial markets:
-
News
-
Data
-
Market sentiment
-
Information shocks
-
Volume
Prediction markets are dynamic. Prices shift as new information comes in — not when a sportsbook manually adjusts a line.
This page is part of Prediction Market 101, helping traders interpret market probabilities with confidence.
Continue Learning
Return to Prediction Market 101
Next Lesson: What Are Kalshi Combos?
Related Reading: Understanding Kalshi Pricing
