UNDERSTANDING KALSHI PRICING

Price = Probability

If a Yes contract is trading at $0.58, that means:

The market believes there is a 58% chance the event happens.

Prediction markets think in probabilities, not odds.

Converting Prices Into Odds (Sports Bettor Translation)

Sports bettors think in +150, -200, +500 types of odds.

Prediction markets use 0–1 scaled probabilities.

Here’s the mapping:

Price × 100 = Implied Probability

Examples:

1. 0.20 → 20%

2. 0.75 → 75%

3. 0.05 → 5%

Simple and intuitive.

Profit Example

If you buy “Yes” at 0.58 and the event happens:

1. You receive $1.00

2. You paid $0.58

3. Profit = $0.42

4. ROI = 72%

If you sell early at 0.72:

1. You keep the difference

2. You don’t need the final event outcome

This is one of prediction markets’ biggest advantages.

What Makes Prices Move?

Just like financial markets:

1. News

2. Data

3. Market sentiment

4. Information shocks

5. Volume

Prediction markets are dynamic. Prices shift as new information comes in — not when a sportsbook manually adjusts a line.

This page is part of Prediction Market 101, helping traders interpret market probabilities with confidence.

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Related Reading: Understanding Kalshi Pricing