Purdue’s 2026 March Madness Win Probability
Live prediction market forecasts for Purdue based on real-time Kalshi and Polymarket data. Updated daily.
📊 Purdue Market Brief
The betting market for the Purdue Boilermakers is characterized by dominant stability and a "returning champion" sentiment. After beginning the season as the preseason AP #1, Purdue has maintained its status as a top-tier title contender out of the gates and one of college basketball’s best first-half squads. The market has fully embraced the "post-Edey" era as a success. Unlike the speculative betting seen with younger teams, Purdue is priced as a high-conviction veteran play, with title odds consistently hovering near the top of the board.
In terms of team health, the Boilermakers are in prime form. The frontcourt "committee" has effectively replaced Zach Edey's production, led by Trey Kaufman-Renn and South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff. Senior guard Braden Smith has solidified his position as the betting favorite for the Wooden Award, leading the nation in assists. Analytically, Purdue is an offensive juggernaut, ranking among the best in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency NET over the season’s first half.
Purdue5%Key Stats
5%
Current Probability
-1%
30-Day Change
#T-7
Current Rank
What's Driving Purdue's Odds
The Braden Smith Factor: As a First-Team All-American candidate and the engine of the offense, Smith's backcourt reliability is what bettors prioritize in the tournament.
Big Ten "Lid-Lifter": An undefeated start in the Big Ten, including a ravenous road attack, has established Purdue as a clear favorite to repeat as conference champions.
Elite Perimeter Shooting: Purdue has been a power conference juggernaut from deep, with Fletcher Loyer and C.J. Cox providing the spacing necessary to prevent teams from doubling their post players.
Metric Supremacy: Holding an impressive SRS (Simple Rating System) score and an elite assist-to-turnover ratio over the first half, Purdue is a "safe" pick for bracket builders looking for efficiency-based winners.
Purdue vs Other Top Contenders
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Purdue Boilermakers March Madness FAQs
No. While Purdue was the runner-up in 1969 and 2024 and was awarded a retroactive national championship for 1932 (Helms Athletic Foundation), it has yet to win the modern NCAA Tournament title.
Under Matt Painter, Purdue is known for "Motion and Mass." They utilize a sophisticated motion offense that emphasizes constant screening and elite post-play, paired with a heavy emphasis on rebounding margin and high-percentage perimeter looks.
The "Boilermaker" legacy includes back-to-back National Player of the Year Zach Edey, 1994 #1 overall pick Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson, and Hall of Famer John Wooden (as a player). Other stars include Jaden Ivey, Rick Mount, and Joe Barry Carroll.