Euro 2024 Semifinal: Netherlands vs. England, Prediction, Best Bet

Despite their best effort, England keeps advancing in the tournament. They fell behind against Switzerland and needed Bukayo Saka to dig them out of trouble. This version of the England national team has completely vanquished any ghosts of penalty shootouts past. It felt like a forgone conclusion that they would step up and finish it. Still, their style of play has not inspired confidence from their supporters or the general viewing public. In their starting 11, they have the Premier League Player of the Year, the La Liga Player of the Year, and the Bundesliga’s top goal scorer. Yet, it has not translated to exciting play or goals. Harry Kane has been inconsistent, Jude Bellingham has had heroics but has also disappeared in some matches, while Phil Foden has had little impact for the Three Lions. 

England won’t be too upset, however. Winning solves everything, and as long as they keep progressing, people can grumble and complain about Gareth Southgate’s tactics. This will be their third time reaching the semifinals at a major tournament. Their pragmatism and defensive shape will face another stiff test as they face off against the Netherlands. 

The Dutch have entirely changed the opinions and perceptions around their teams. Heading into the tournament, they were not given much chance to win, and that perception was only bolstered by them finishing third in their group. They have pulled a 180 in the knockout round, however. They put Romania to the sword in a comfortable 3-0 win that seemed to put a ton of wind in their sails. Cody Gakpo is tied for the Golden Boot at the Euros with three, and Xavi Simons is tied for the most assists with three. 

They’ve started creating chance after chance and have become hard to shut down. The Netherlands also have their battering ram off the bench in Wout Weghorst to pivot their approach. Having such a game-changer at their disposal has gotten them out of many a jam in major tournaments. The chaos Weghorst brings allows others to shine, and his goal threat strikes fear into opposing backlines.

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European Championship Semifinals Best Bet

Cody Gakpo has been a constant threat in the knockouts. He had a goal and an assist in games against Romania and Turkiye, while the second went down as a Mert Muldur own goal. Gakpo had been giving him fits all night and was right there to meet the cross from Denzel Dumfries. Gakpo has been at the heart of many of the Dutch chances. He has created 11 chances thus far in the tournament already. The Dutch have scored nine goals in the tournament, second behind Germany and Spain. If the Netherlands gets on the scoresheet, there’s a good chance that Gakpo will be involved.

Best Bet: Cody Gakpo to score or assist (+250)

European Championship Semifinals Best Prop Bet

We all know England has not lit the world on fire at this tournament. On the other hand, the Dutch have shown much more attacking threat, despite the recent history pointing to a very cagey affair. Of the last 14 Euro semis, nine have had two or fewer goals, seven ended square after 90 minutes, and four were goalless. We’ve seen the Netherlands be rendered ineffectual in this tournament already. Their match against France could be the blueprint for England. They only had four shots on target and 0.47 xG in that game. This has all the makings of a game that will feature extra time. 

Best Prop: Draw after 90 minutes (+180)

European Championship Semifinals Best Anytime Goal Bet

Based on the best bet we discussed above, if you were going to pick someone to score, there is no one better than Cody Gakpo. His movement, work rate, and ability have been giving his opponents headaches. He is also the player with the most goals left in the tournament. He has a nose for the goal and is hitting a stride. I would be very confident backing him to score against England. 

Anytime Goal Scorer: Cody Gakpo (+360)

European Championship Semifinals Prediction

Historically, the Dutch have had England’s number. In the 22 matches they played, England only won six. When you focus on the major tournaments, it is a lot more even. The Netherlands beat them in Euro 88, had a goalless draw in the 1990 World Cup, and lost 4-1 to England at Euro 96. However this is the Netherlands first Euros Semifinals in 20 years, on the other hand the Three Lions could become the fourth nation to make back-to-back finals in the competition. England has found ways to win and has the top-end talent to push it over the line. It may not be pretty, but it will undoubtedly come in extra time. However, England will be back in the finals.

England 1 – Netherlands 0 (In ET)

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