NCAAB · 1 year ago

5 Teams Poised for Cinderella Runs in March Madness

Grant White

Host · Writer

Dayton Flyers
National Champion Odds: +7500
Final Four Odds: +2000

Whether or not the Dayton Flyers qualify as a 'Cinderella' is up for debate, but we think the slipper fits. Sure, they might be a top 25-ranked team this year, but they haven't qualified for the NCAA Tournament since 2017. Further, they play in the Atlantic 10 Division and are at a significant disadvantage competing against the Big 7 in basketball. So even if they enter the tournament as a #5 or #6 seed, Dayton deserves all the credit for punching above its weight class.

The Flyers are playing their own brand of offensive basketball, forcing other teams to keep pace. They have the ninth-best three-point shooting percentage in the country but can also bang with teams in the paint. DaRon Holmes has been the offensive catalyst the Flyers have been looking for, averaging 19.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 43.5% from range.

The question isn't whether Dayton will be in the big dance but rather how far they can go. It's been a long time coming, and the Flyers won't let the moment pass them by.
Indiana State Sycamores
National Champion Odds: +12000
Final Four Odds: +5500

The Missouri Valley isn't a hotbed for college basketball's top talent, but the Indiana State Sycamores have cemented themselves as the conference's best. Their up-tempo offense and elite scoring could make it hard for other programs to keep pace come March Madness.

The Sycamores can score better than most programs in the country. Their 85.3 points per game rank sixth among all college basketball teams, thanks to their fourth-ranked 50.6% shooting percentage and fifth-ranked 39.9% 3-point field goal percentage. In total, they lead the nation in true shooting percentage, operating one of the most efficient units out there.

Granted, Indiana State has come up short against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans this season. However, both of those contests were true road games. A neutral venue could give the Sycamores the advantage they need to go on a deep playoff run.
Morehead State Eagles
National Champion Odds: N/A
Final Four Odds: N/A

The Morehead State Eagles aren't a team you'll find on most futures boards, but they are still primed to go on a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

Morehead State is built for postseason success. One of the best rebounding teams in the country, the Eagles don't take a possession off. They rate as one of the top defensive teams in the country, holding opponents to a paltry 66.1 points per game. Further, they make it rain from beyond the arc, with 42.8% of their shots coming from distance.

Inevitably, the Eagles must win the Ohio Valley Conference to be included in the big dance. But when they do, Morehead State could easily catch a few teams off guard and go on a run.
Princeton Tigers
National Champion Odds: N/A
Final Four Odds: N/A

Bettors aren't convinced that the Princeton Tigers will emerge as the Ivy League representatives for the NCAA Tournament. But there are a few factors supporting that Princeton can get the better of the Yale Bulldogs and not only make the tourney but also go on a run.

The Tigers have a championship-caliber roster, returning three top scorers from last season. Xaivian Lee, Caden Pierce, and Matt Allocco stabilize the Tigers' backcourt, averaging 17.8, 14.8, and 12.8 points per game, respectively. Additionally, they all contribute to one of the best three-point offenses in the nation, with Princeton averaging 10.2 triples per game on 35.7% shooting.

Let's not forget that this is primarily the same roster that went to the Sweet Sixteen in 2023 as a #15 seed. This team won't be knocked off their stride in the Ivy League Tournament and will emerge as a giant killer again come March.
Saint Mary's Gaels
National Champion Odds: +7500
Final Four Odds: +2000

The Saint Mary's Gaels have made the big dance in each of the last two seasons and are positioned to make it three in a row in 2024. The class of the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's, is priced as a contender in the futures market for one reason -- because they are.

The Gaels play a suffocating brand of defense. They've reduced the top teams in the conference to nothing, holding the perennial contender Gonzaga Bulldogs to 62 points at home, dropping their points allowed per game to 59.9. We've also seen the Gaels hold the Pacific Tigers to a laughable 28 points at the end of January, easily covering the -27.5 spread and keeping the game under 135.5 points.

Still, Saint Mary's hasn't sacrificed offense in pursuit of superior defense. They hit on 45.4% of shots, playing a methodical system and grabbing more offensive rebounds (11.5 per game) than 95% of NCAA teams. This season, the Saint Mary's Gaels can be living proof that defense wins championships.
Dayton Flyers
National Champion Odds: +7500
Final Four Odds: +2000

Whether or not the Dayton Flyers qualify as a 'Cinderella' is up for debate, but we think the slipper fits. Sure, they might be a top 25-ranked team this year, but they haven't qualified for the NCAA Tournament since 2017. Further, they play in the Atlantic 10 Division and are at a significant disadvantage competing against the Big 7 in basketball. So even if they enter the tournament as a #5 or #6 seed, Dayton deserves all the credit for punching above its weight class.

The Flyers are playing their own brand of offensive basketball, forcing other teams to keep pace. They have the ninth-best three-point shooting percentage in the country but can also bang with teams in the paint. DaRon Holmes has been the offensive catalyst the Flyers have been looking for, averaging 19.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while shooting 43.5% from range.

The question isn't whether Dayton will be in the big dance but rather how far they can go. It's been a long time coming, and the Flyers won't let the moment pass them by.
Indiana State Sycamores
National Champion Odds: +12000
Final Four Odds: +5500

The Missouri Valley isn't a hotbed for college basketball's top talent, but the Indiana State Sycamores have cemented themselves as the conference's best. Their up-tempo offense and elite scoring could make it hard for other programs to keep pace come March Madness.

The Sycamores can score better than most programs in the country. Their 85.3 points per game rank sixth among all college basketball teams, thanks to their fourth-ranked 50.6% shooting percentage and fifth-ranked 39.9% 3-point field goal percentage. In total, they lead the nation in true shooting percentage, operating one of the most efficient units out there.

Granted, Indiana State has come up short against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans this season. However, both of those contests were true road games. A neutral venue could give the Sycamores the advantage they need to go on a deep playoff run.