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NBA · 1 year ago

NBA Draft: Tracking Paolo Banchero’s Line Movement Timeline

Danny Mogollon

Danny Mogollon

NBA Draft: Tracking Paolo Banchero’s Line Movement Timeline

It was a rollercoaster final 24 hours before the start of the 2022 NBA Draft. Let’s look at the timeline at FanDuel leading up to the Orlando Magic’s selection at No. 1 overall. 

Paolo Banchero movement in the #1 Pick market:

  • 6/6 – Opened at +2600
  • 6/14 – he moved to +1200
  • 6/17 – he moved to +2300
  • 6/19 – he moved to +1600 
  • 6/20 – he moved to +170
  • 6/21 – he floated around +200 to +260
  • 6/22 – he went as high as +440
  • 6/23 – in the morning was cut to -210 
  • Out to +1000 after the WOJ Tweet
  • 3:20 pm ET – the line was +195
  • 6:30 pm ET – moved to +420

When the lines opened in the first week of June, Paolo Banchero was the third choice behind Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren, with Smith the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 overall at -600. Monday was the first time Banchero going first overall was seriously on the table in the betting market. This was when things started to get exciting, but we had no idea what was coming. 

By late Wednesday night, it appeared that Smith had re-solidified himself as the guy (-600), but on the morning of draft day, the whispers and rumors swirled Banchero to the top. The buzz was Banchero was the guy…until Adrian Wojnarowski dropped a Woj bomb which blew up the betting market when he tweeted that the 1-2-3 of Smith-Holmgren-Banchero  was “firm.”

The ride was over. Smith was -10000, so it had to be. Right? Wrong.

After peaking, Smith’s odds steadily plummeted throughout the morning and early afternoon, almost non-stop (is this what day trading is like?), with Banchero making up ground. The yo-yo continued later in the afternoon, with the odds shifting back towards Smith at -420.

Surely, this time the madness would stop. Wrong, again. Banchero would again emerge as the betting favorite following another Woj tweet just before the draft. 

Did you follow all that? Yeah, my head is spinning too. Imagine working at the sportsbooks?

Since Midnight Wednesday, here are Banchero’s bets and handle percentages:

  • Banchero generated 28% of bets and 54% of the handle to go #1
  • Banchero generated 35% of bets and 15% of the handle to go #2
  • Banchero generated 28% of bets and 39% of the handle to go #3

Smith was ahead of Banchero with 32% of the bets to 28% to go No. 1; however, the Duke product had a significant handle advantage (54% to 39%). Sharps were on the Blue Devil (two “syndicates,” according to some reports). With the No. 2 pick market, it was Banchero ahead of Smith in the percentage of bets (35% to 22%), but it was the Auburn man with the slightest of edges in handle (16% to 15%). 

Surprisingly, Smith had the highest percentage of bets (30%) to go third overall, followed by Banchero (28%) and Holmgren. Both Smith and Banchero carried 39% of the handle.