2025 NBA Draft: How Far Has Ace Bailey’s Stock Plummeted?

Ace Bailey was once penciled in as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. Following the lottery in May, the expectation was clear: Cooper Flagg at No. 1, Dylan Harper at No. 2, and Bailey rounding out the top three. Fast forward to draft week, and the narrative around Bailey has taken a dramatic turn.

With a puzzling pre-draft process marked by poor interviews, canceled workouts, and mixed messaging to front offices — including the Philadelphia 76ers — Bailey’s draft stock is suddenly on thin ice. Now a +130 favorite to go sixth overall, Bailey’s future hangs in the balance as teams weigh upside against uncertainty.

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NBA Draft Info & Where to Watch

• Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
• Where to Watch: ABC, ESPN
• Where to Stream: Fubo, ABC.com, ESPN App
• Follow: SportsGrid App (Google Play Store or Apple Store)
• Date: June 25, 2025
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET

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Pre-Draft Process Marred by Mixed Signals

Ace Bailey’s elite athleticism and potential as a scoring wing have never been questioned. But his approach to the draft process has raised red flags throughout the league. Reports surfaced that Bailey refused to meet with early-picking teams, including Philadelphia, unless they guaranteed they would select him. In essence: “I don’t want to go there—unless you promise to pick me.”

This contradictory messaging has confused front offices and shaken their confidence in his maturity and professionalism. Canceling early workouts and declining interviews with key lottery teams only compounds the issue. In a draft class where every spot is worth millions, Bailey’s apparent gamble to fall to a preferred destination could be a costly miscalculation.

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Still a Top-5 Talent — But Will He Go Top 5?

Despite all the noise, Bailey remains a -200 favorite to be selected in the top five. Yet curiously, he’s not favored to go 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 individually. His shortest odds are at No. 6 overall (+130), the pick held by the Washington Wizards, who could offer the young, rebuilding environment he seems to crave.

Bailey’s desire to land in a situation where he can shoot 15–20 times a game, grow through mistakes, and be a featured player has shaped his draft strategy. But there’s a fine line between controlling your destiny and alienating decision-makers — and Bailey may have crossed it.

The Cost of Slipping: Millions Left on the Table?

Falling in the draft doesn’t just change jersey colors — it changes bank accounts. Had Bailey stayed in the top 3, his rookie deal would’ve come with tens of millions in guaranteed salary. Every slide down the board chips away at that total, and there’s no guarantee of long-term career health or value.

In a league where fortunes are made on rookie deals, Bailey’s bet on himself could either prove savvy or extremely expensive. As draft night approaches, teams are left with a dilemma: do they believe in the player enough to overlook the process?

Talent vs. Trust

There’s no denying Ace Bailey’s ability. He’s still a projected lottery pick for good reason. But in a draft class with other high-upside wings like VJ Edgecombe and proven college stars like Dylan Harper, decision-makers may value professionalism just as much as verticals and wingspans. If Bailey slips outside the top 5, he’ll have no one to blame but his pre-draft process — and millions of reasons to regret it.

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