2026 NBA Rookie of the Year Trends Following the 2025 NBA Draft

Last night’s 2025 NBA Draft set the stage for what promises to be one of the most compelling Rookie of the Year races in recent memory. While Cooper Flagg entered the league as the clear favorite, oddsmakers and bettors are showing serious respect to a rising group of playmakers and bigs—especially Dylan Harper and longshot threats like Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears.

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Cooper Flagg Opens as Favorite, but Not Without Competition

Selected first overall by the Dallas Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is the most polished two-way player in this class. A 6’9”, 205-pound versatile star out of Duke, Flagg posted 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG in his final college season, showcasing elite feel, advanced footwork, and the kind of defense that translates immediately at the next level. That’s why BetMGM opened him as a -400 favorite to win Rookie of the Year.

However, the number has shifted significantly to -250, hinting that the race may be tighter than expected.

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Dylan Harper: Public’s Favorite & Sportsbook’s Biggest Liability

Selected second overall by the San Antonio Spurs, Rutgers’ Dylan Harper may not have the shortest odds, but he’s been the most popular pick among the betting public—and for good reason. At 6’6” and 215 pounds, Harper brings a dynamic offensive profile with 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, and 4.0 APG last season, showing burst, creativity, and confidence in big moments.

Bettors are buying in:

• Highest Ticket %: 21.7%

• Highest Handle %: 29.8%

• Biggest Liability at BetMGM

If Harper shines right away in San Antonio’s backcourt, especially paired with Victor Wembanyama, he could quickly surpass Flagg in the market.

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Derik Queen: Underrated Path to Prominence in Utah

A New Orleans Pelicans rookie worth watching is Derik Queen, the 13th overall selection out of Maryland. A 6’10”, 2046-pound big, Queen filled the box score last season, nearly averaging a double-double with 16.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG to go along with 1.1 BPG. While his ROY odds remain long, they’ve moved from +4000 to +3000, and he commands 12.3% of the handle, making him one of the more bet-on dark horses.

His role could be sizable on a rebuilding Jazz roster—and that opportunity matters in this race.

Ace Bailey & Jeremiah Fears Offer Balanced Sleeper Value

The Utah Jazz‘s Ace Bailey, selected fifth overall, brings a well-rounded offensive game at 17.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 1.3 BPG. His two-way versatility makes him an intriguing mid-tier option. With 10.9% of tickets, he’s certainly caught the public’s eye.

Meanwhile, Jeremiah Fears (7th overall to the New Orleans Pelicans) could thrive if given minutes in the rotation. At 6’4”, 182 lbs, his blend of scoring and elite guard play (17.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.1 APG) has pushed his odds from +4000 to +3500—a signal of quiet confidence from the market.

Longshots to Monitor: Walter Clayton Jr. Makes the Liability List

Though drafted 18th overall, Walter Clayton Jr. has made enough noise with bettors to register as one of BetMGM’s biggest liabilities. While his odds are at +10000, his inclusion on the liability list suggests a segment of the public sees something of value in those long odds. Whether it’s an expanded role for the Utah Jazz or a late-summer leap, Clayton could make some noise as a dark horse.

Bottom Line: Flagg Still Leads, But the Field is Closing Fast

Flagg remains the front-runner, but momentum and value lie elsewhere. With Harper leading in tickets, handle, and liability, and names like Queen and Bailey earning growing attention, the 2026 Rookie of the Year race may come down to role, team success, and early opportunity.

Odds subject to change. Get your latest odds here.

*All BetMGM Data is based on straight bets