NBA Christmas Best Bets: Rockets-Lakers, Timberwolves-Nuggets Picks Today

Christmas Day brings NBA basketball center stage, and while we’re treated to a five-game slate under the tree this year, I’m focusing on the evening games, when the kids are tucked in, and it’s time to nosh some leftovers or have a few drinks with friends. From late-game reliability in LA to offensive balance in the Mile High City, this guide breaks down where value stands as the NBA’s holiday showcase hits PrimeTime.

Hitting three of our past four picks, let’s empty those stockings tonight!

Where to Watch Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers

• Location: Crypto.com Arena — Los Angeles, California
• Where to Watch: ESPN
• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Betting Odds

• Spread: HOU -2.5 (-108) | LAL +2.5 (-112)
• Total: Over 230.5 (-114) | Under (-106)
• Moneyline: HOU -144 | LAL +124

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers Kalshi Odds

• Chance: HOU 55% | LAL 45%
• Spread: HOU -2.5 Yes (50¢) | No (51¢)
• Total: Over 239.5 Yes (49¢) | No (52¢)

HOU vs LAL Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+124)

This is a spot where trust in execution matters more than matchup noise, and the Los Angeles Lakers have been as reliable as any team in the league when games tighten. They own the top-ranked defense in the clutch, allowing just 93.6 points per 100 possessions, and that has translated directly into results. Los Angeles is a perfect 10-0 in games decided within five points in the final five minutes, a profile that travels well regardless of opponent.

They’ve also been automatic when playing from ahead. The Lakers are 18-0 when leading by double digits and 11-0 when leading at halftime, the only undefeated team in the league in both scenarios. That level of control is especially valuable on a holiday stage where composure often decides outcomes. Historically, this franchise has thrived in this window as well, with 25 Christmas Day wins, tied for the most in NBA history — including a victory over the Golden State Warriors last season.

The spotlight should once again belong to LeBron James, who has looked fully re-engaged after a slow return from sciatic nerve irritation that cost him the first 14 games of the season. Over his last four outings, the King is averaging 28.3 points per game, and Christmas has long been his stage.

Houston enters with uncertainty. Alperen Sengun (questionable), who averages 23.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game, is dealing with calf tightness and is in danger of missing the contest. If that interior presence is limited or absent, it further strengthens the Lakers’ defense, which already ranks ninth, allowing just 48.1 points in the paint per game. With Deandre Ayton, who leads Los Angeles at 9.2 rebounds per game, anchoring the interior, the edge tilts firmly toward the home side, should Sengun not be able to go.

Add it all together, and the value in LA pulling off a tight win trumps the juice you’d be paying on the spread.

Dunk on the sportsbooks tonight! Grab SportsGrid’s free NBA picks, NBA props, and NBA SGPs.

Where to Watch Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets

• Location: Ball Arena — Denver, Colorado
• Where to Watch: ABC/ESPN
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

• Spread: MIN +2.5 (-114) | DEN -2.5 (-106)
• Total: Over 239.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
• Moneyline: MIN +112 | DEN -132

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Kalshi Odds

• Chance: MIN 47% | DEN 53%
• Spread: DEN -1.5 Yes (53¢) | No (49¢)
• Total: Over 239.5 Yes (51¢) | No (51¢)

MIN vs DEN Odds & Predictions, Free Picks, Prop Bets Today & Injury Updates

Denver Nuggets Cover 2.5-Point Spread (-106)

Rather than paying extra juice on the moneyline, this sets up a clean spot to take the Denver Nuggets on the spread at -2.5, especially given how consistently dominant the Nuggets’ offense has been. Christmas is all about family, and my younger brother, Moneyline Mikey, even concurs that the spread is the way to go tonight.

Everything still flows through Nikola Jokić, who is in the middle of a historically efficient season. If the year ended today, Jokić would own the highest true shooting percentage in NBA history at 70.9% for a player averaging at least 20 a night, the largest differential in 30 seasons of play-by-play data. Over his past 10 games, the three-time MVP is averaging 29.0 points. 

While Denver went 0-4 against Minnesota last season, Jokić still averaged 35.3 points, 9.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game in the season series. The Nuggs already handled Minnesota twice this season, going 2-0 with double-digit road wins. The Joker’s been just as lethal in 2025, carving up Minnesota harder than a Christmas Day turkey. Jokic is averaging a ridiculous triple-double of 26.0 PPG, 15.5 RPG, and 10.5 APG.

The difference now is support. Jamal Murray is enjoying a career year, averaging 25.1 points per game, giving Denver a second scoring engine that defenses can’t ignore. Aaron Gordon remains out, but Peyton Watson has stepped seamlessly into the starting lineup. Over his past 15 games, the third-year wing is averaging 14.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 threes, and 1.1 blocks in 30.1 minutes per game.

Denver is scoring 9.3 more points per 100 possessions than the league average, a gap that becomes even more meaningful in a short spread environment. Not only is Nikola’s bunch 17-12 ATS overall this year, but also the league’s highest-scoring team at 125.2 points per game, ranking eighth in paint scoring (52.3 PPG) and tied for eighth in threes per game (14.1). With balance inside and out, laying a short number makes sense.

Christmas Day NBA Best Bets

• Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+124)
• Nuggets Cover 2.5-Point Spread (-106)

Odds Subject to Change. Get the Most Up-to-Date Odds Here.