Best NBA Bets Friday, February 27: Trends, Predictions & Picks for Tonight
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
The board is screaming one thing tonight: availability is the handicap. We’ve got a Brooklyn Nets team on the road on the second night of a back-to-back, getting asked to cover a monster spread, and a Dallas Mavericks team on zero days’ rest at home with a banged-up Memphis squad walking in. I’m not trying to be a hero in every game. I’m trying to get to the window twice.
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Best Bet: Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (3 units)
Where to Watch the Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Tonight
- Matchup: DAL vs. MEM
- Arena: American Airlines Center
- Location: Dallas, TX
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 08:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Memphis Grizzlies | +4.5 (-108) | +164 | 37.9% | 36% |
| Dallas Mavericks | -4.5 (-112) | -198 | 66.4% | 64% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
Dallas is on the back end of a back-to-back with zero days’ rest. That’s the obvious knock. But Memphis is walking in just as compromised on availability, and the rest edge does not matter when you’re missing this many rotation pieces.
Memphis is not walking in healthy. Ja Morant (elbow) is out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (finger) is out. Santi Aldama (knee) is out. Zach Edey (ankle) is out. Cedric Coward (knee) is out. That’s not a tweak or two. That’s a rotation getting ripped apart.
Dallas has struggled recently, 2-8 in its last ten at home, which is why we’re getting a number this low against a shorthanded Memphis team on the road. But I still trust them to cover here, especially if Cooper Flagg (foot), who is questionable, suits up. If he plays, this spread could look generous by the fourth quarter.
Expert Pick: Brooklyn Nets +17.5 (2 units)
Where to Watch the Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets Tonight
- Matchup: BOS vs. BRK
- Arena: TD Garden
- Location: Boston, MA
- Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
- Date: February 27, 2026
- Time: 07:30 PM ET
NBA Betting Odds Today: Celtics vs. Nets Moneyline, Spread & Kalshi Probabilities
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implied Prob. | Kalshi Chance |
| Brooklyn Nets | +17.5 (-105) | +850 | 10.5% | 8% |
| Boston Celtics | -17.5 (-115) | -1450 | 93.5% | 91% |
Odds as of February 27, 2026, at 11:26 AM ET
This is a number play. +17.5 is a tax. Boston can absolutely win this game comfortably. I’m not arguing that. I’m saying the spread is doing too much heavy lifting when the Nets are on zero days’ rest on the road.
Boston has also been an under team lately. They’re 80% to the under in their last ten. That matters with a huge spread. Lower-scoring environments create backdoor covers. They create fourth-quarter coasting. They create the exact kind of game where the favorite wins by fourteen and nobody cares.
Brooklyn has been awful lately, no debate. 2-8 in its last ten, and 3-7 against the spread in its last ten. But a road team on a back-to-back getting nearly eighteen points has a real shot at a backdoor cover. The Nets have lost 14 out of 58 games by 18+ points this year, a 24% rate. I believe tonight makes it 14 of 59.
The SportsGrid Betting Edge
- Best Bet (3 units): Dallas Mavericks -4.5
- Expert Pick (2 units): Brooklyn Nets +17.5
I looked at every game. Cleveland-Detroit has too many moving pieces with Donovan Mitchell (groin) out and multiple Cleveland questionables. New York-Milwaukee is tempting with Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) out, but the Knicks are still laying -8.5 on the road. Denver-Oklahoma City is a war with both sides missing key bodies. I’m not forcing it.
We ride the two spots where the setup is clean. If you’re with me, let’s get paid. If you’re fading, I respect the sweat.
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Our picks against the spread are produced by the SportsGrid NBA editorial team, which is a collaborative unit of basketball and betting experts, data scientists, and market specialists dedicated to uncovering high-probability edges. By combining proprietary predictive modeling with real-time market data, the team distills complex situational trends—including rest advantages, injury impacts, and schedule spots—into actionable bets.
Data from Blitz. Stats as of February 27. This article has been published by Senior Editor Tyler Mason.
