Nathan’s Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Trends

The Nathan’s Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest isn’t just a spectacle—it’s also a huge day for sportsbooks. BetMGM’s latest odds reveal how bettors are lining up on Joey Chestnut, Patrick Bertoletti, and other top eaters heading into the big showdown.

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Line Movement: Bettors Back Bertoletti

There’s been notable line movement in the men’s hot dog contest markets over the last 24 hours.

• Joey Chestnut’s odds have shortened slightly, moving from -2500 to -2000, but he remains the overwhelming favorite to reclaim the mustard belt.

• Patrick Bertoletti, who won last year’s contest during Chestnut’s absence, has seen his odds tighten dramatically from +1600 to +1000.

• Nick Wehry, another competitive veteran, moved from +5000 to +4000, showing mild interest from value hunters.

Notably, Bertoletti has become the worst outcome for the book, signaling significant sharp and public action on him as the top contender behind Chestnut.

Chestnut’s Total: Bettors Flip Their Position

While the outright winner market grabs headlines, the total hot dogs eaten by Joey Chestnut remains BetMGM’s single most-bet market for the event—generating even more action than the contest’s winner odds.

Just yesterday, 86% of the money was backing the under 71.5 hot dogs for Chestnut, with many expecting he’d coast through the sweltering New York heat without chasing a personal record.

However, that narrative flipped fast. Today, 59% of the money has swung to the over 71.5, suggesting a growing belief that Chestnut could put on a show and push the number higher—perhaps to silence critics or chase another record on his return to Coney Island.

BetMGM Highlights: Men’s Hot Dog Contest

Hot Dog Contest line movement (Yesterday to Today)

• Joey Chestnut -2500 to -2000
• Patrick Bertoletti +1600 to +1000
• Nick Wehry +5000 to +4000
• Bertoletti is the worst outcome the sportsbook

Joey Chestnut total hot dogs eaten

• Most bet hot dog market – more bets than winner of contest
• Yesterday, 86% of money was on under 71.5 hot dogs eaten
• Today, 59% of money is on over 71.5 hot dogs

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Betting Takeaway

With odds shifting and handle surging on the total hot dogs market, all eyes are on how Joey Chestnut approaches his return. Meanwhile, Patrick Bertoletti’s surge makes him the biggest liability for the book, adding extra intrigue to the iconic Fourth of July showdown.

Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Past Winners

Year	Winners	Hot Dogs and Buns Eaten
2024	Men’s: Patrick Bertoletti	58
2024	Women’s: Miki Sudo	51
2023	Men’s: Joey Chestnut	62
2023	Women’s: Miki Sudo	39.5
2022	Men’s: Joey Chestnut	63
2022	Women’s: Miki Sudo	40
2021	Men’s: Joey Chestnut	76
2021	Women’s: Michelle Lesco	30.75
2020	Men’s: Joey Chestnut	75
2020	Women’s: Miki Sudo	48.5
2019	Men’s: Joey Chestnut	71
2019	Women’s: Miki Sudo	31

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