Name: Future of Prediction Markets Amid Regulatory Uncertainty
Uploaded: 2025-11-21T15:43:31-05:00
Duration: 3 min 15 s
Description: As the CFTC hesitates, prediction markets expand and secure key partnerships. For more legal analysis across the gaming industry, check out Legal Sports Report.

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As the CFTC hesitates, prediction markets expand and secure key partnerships. For more legal analysis across the gaming industry, check out Legal Sports Report.

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Future of Prediction Markets Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

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Uh, Sam, in, in looking for some new clarity, uh, the other day we seemingly did not get any. The new CFTC chairman essentially, uh, passing the buck a little bit, saying that, hey, we're going to let, uh, you know, the courts handle things and, you know, certainly I, I don't know which way this is going to go, but the longer that everybody just keeps pushing these stories to the side, it seems like prediction markets are here to stay. Yeah, I would agree with you, Craig, that's the top line takeaway. The more uncertainty we have around the fate of prediction markets, who will decide them mainly, uh, the longer they ramp up their investment, their legitimacy through deals with the NHL, with X, with the New York Stock Exchange, so they have more time to gain mind share uh in the general public's eyes as well. We certainly see ads. Everywhere and these companies are getting more and more investments by the day but kind of the big news this week is that Michael Selig, who is the chief counsel of the SEC crypto task force, he's Trump's nominee to lead the CFTC, which is largely devoid of leadership right now. They only have one of 5, acting chair seats filled, and one of those chair seats is actually, uh, on the way out in about a month. Well, so his timing comes with the Senate confirmation hearing, uh, later this week in front of the full Senate, um, where everyone's kind of pressing him for what are you going to do about prediction markets. It's a new space that, uh, courts have largely said this is actually up for the CFTC to decide. You've had in several states like Nevada and New Jersey, um, where state gaming regulators sued to stop these prediction markets calling. The illegal gambling, the courts have said, you know, it's actually up for the CFTC to decide whether these are actually financial instruments and legal, uh, markets you can offer or if this is just flouting state law. And so senators pressed Michael Selig about this, what would you do on it? And he largely said, oh, that's actually not up for the CFTC to decide that's up for the courts to decide. Um, one senator, Adam Schiff, even asked him very basic questions if. You know, I'm betting on the Bills Texans Monday night football game last night on one of these apps. Is that sports gaming, uh, Selig declined and said, you know, I'd have to look to previous court decisions, and I don't think I can make that decision. He then even asked him, uh, if you and I are just betting on the game, is that sports betting or is that a financial instrument? Again, Selig declined to answer and deferred it to the courts, which all points to the growth. Kind of sentiment around what people believe is gonna end up happening with this stuff which is that the Supreme Court will likely decide the fate of it. Now again, as you mentioned, it just it's gonna take more time. The Supreme Court moves very slowly and it takes a long time for, you know, cases to get to them and you don't even know if they would even take the case at that point. Um, we could be talking about someone else as president during that. Time the Trump administration has been very friendly to prediction markets. They certainly have a lot of ties to them, been very friendly to crypto as well. Um, they lifted a Biden administration ban on polymarkets. So by the time this all gets sorted out, you might have a completely different landscape of who the regulator is supposed to be, and I agree with your takeaway, Craig. The more all the uncertainty just kind of continues, the more these prediction markets are gonna gain steam.