2025 PGA Championship Best Bets, Predictions and Outlook

Golf’s second major of the year tees off at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, a bomber’s paradise with fast greens, narrow margins, and heavy betting action. We go deep into how course conditions, weather, and player profiles influence the odds, especially after heavy rain disrupted early prep. Add the historical weight of majors, the distinct setup of this course, and hot player form, and you get a betting board ripe for value. Here’s how to approach the top of the market with confidence heading into Thursday’s opening round.

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🏌️‍♂️ Course Preview: Quail Hollow Is Built for Bombers and Flatstick Kings

Quail Hollow has hosted PGA Tour events before, and that familiarity has drawn some criticism. But don’t confuse repetition with simplicity. This 7,600-yard par-71 layout demands power off the tee, sharp long irons, and most importantly, elite putting.

There are three par 3s over 200 yards, multiple par 4s topping 500, and little rough to penalize inaccurate bombers. That’s why players like Rory McIlroy, who has four career wins at Quail Hollow, and Bryson DeChambeau stand out. This is not just a long course — it’s a mental and putting test as well.

📈 Betting Favorites

Scottie Scheffler (+400): The favorite enters in strong form and remains a magnet for betting action due to consistency and ball striking.
Rory McIlroy (+450): Just won The Masters and owns Quail Hollow, but faces major pressure attempting to go back-to-back in majors.
Bryson DeChambeau (+700): Built for a bomber’s track, and if he’s dialed in with the putter, could absolutely contend.
Justin Thomas & Xander Schauffele (+2200): Proven major winners at generous prices.
Ludvig Åberg, Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann (+2500): Under-the-radar names with tools to shine if conditions soften again after rain.
Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (+4000): Major pedigree at value numbers.

🔒 Best Bet #1: Bryson DeChambeau to Win (+700)

Few players are better suited for Quail Hollow than Bryson. He checks every box: elite off the tee, excellent with long irons, and ranks top five in strokes gained putting over the last six months. With no thick rough and tons of rollout on wet fairways, DeChambeau should feast.

🔒 Best Bet #2: Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (-110)

Rory McIlroy’s history at Quail Hollow is almost unmatched — four wins on this track — and he enters with momentum after capturing the Masters. His scoring average of 69.48 is nearly a full shot better than anyone else at this course. While back-to-back major wins are rare (it hasn’t happened in a decade), his ball flight and course comfort make him a near lock to be in contention come Sunday.

🔒 Best Bet #3: Top LIV Golfer – Joaquin Niemann (+550)

Joaquin Niemann has quietly pieced together a strong LIV campaign, leading the individual standings. He has the balanced game — power, touch, and high ball flight — that plays at Quail Hollow. Among LIV contenders, he offers upside and consistency, along with value at this number.

🔒 Best Bet #4: First Round Leader – Justin Thomas (+3300)

With rain impacting prep, expect players familiar with the course to get off to a faster start. Justin Thomas fits that profile — and he’s one of just a few players who thrive early in majors. With soft greens and fresh fairways, JT could go low early.

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