World Cup politics take center stage as sportsbook posts odds on protests, defections and Trump appearances

LOS ANGELES — The FIFA World Cup has always reflected more than just soccer. Every four years, the tournament becomes a global stage where politics, culture and international tensions often intersect with sport.

With the 2026 FIFA World Cup set to be played across the United States, Canada and Mexico, those intersections may be more pronounced than ever.

As the tournament approaches amid political divisions across North America, ongoing global conflicts and the inclusion of Iran in the 48-team field, oddsmakers are already wagering on what could happen away from the pitch.

Sportsbook BetOnline.ag has released more than 30 political-themed proposition bets tied to the World Cup, ranging from potential protests and diplomatic controversies to appearances by President Donald Trump and the possibility of players seeking asylum during the tournament.

While many of the wagers are long shots, they offer a glimpse into the unique political backdrop surrounding the largest World Cup in history.

Among the most notable props is whether FIFA will issue an official warning to a team for a political display during the tournament, listed at 5/1 odds. Oddsmakers also give 10/1 odds that a player will receive a red card related to a political message and 15/1 odds that a match could be delayed or suspended because of a political protest.

Security concerns are also reflected in the betting market. BetOnline lists 20/1 odds that a match will be delayed or relocated because of a security issue and 5/1 odds that a player will be denied entry into one of the host countries.

Iran's participation has generated a significant portion of the political betting menu.

The sportsbook offers odds on whether any Iranian player will refuse to sing the national anthem (100/1), whether fans will boo the anthem during Iran's match against New Zealand (25/1) and whether an Iranian player could defect following the tournament. The over/under on Iranian defections is set at one player.

BetOnline also lists Iran as the overwhelming favorite at 1/2 odds to produce the first player to request asylum during the tournament. Haiti is next at 4/1, followed by Mexico at 7/1 and Iraq and Panama at 8/1.

Other political props include 33/1 odds that a player will reveal a "Palestine" message under his jersey and 33/1 odds that a player could be arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement during the competition.

Trump also figures prominently throughout the betting board.

The sportsbook gives 1/5 odds that Trump will attend a United States match during the tournament and 3/1 odds that he will not. A potential U.S.-Paraguay match has inspired several novelty wagers, including whether Trump would receive more boos than cheers when shown on the stadium video board and whether he would fall asleep during the game.

Oddsmakers have also posted 3/1 odds that Trump would lift the World Cup trophy before any player or coach during the championship celebration, while a separate wager asks whether his eventual tournament prediction will be correct.

Away from the political betting menu, BetOnline also analyzed more than 2.5 million geotagged posts on X over the last month to determine which nations fans across North America believe will win the World Cup.

The social media study found that Spain is the most popular pick across the United States, earning support in 15 states, including California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado and Pennsylvania.

France, listed among the tournament favorites at 5/1 odds, was the most popular selection in Canada and also led eight U.S. states. England topped eight states, while Argentina was favored in seven.

Brazil received support from four states, Germany from five and Portugal from three.

Perhaps most surprising was the lack of support for the host nation. Despite the United States hosting the majority of matches and automatically qualifying for the tournament, only Montana and Virginia selected the U.S. Men's National Team as the most likely champion.

The skepticism is reflected in the betting odds, where the United States enters the tournament as a 100/1 long shot.

Mexico, meanwhile, favored Spain to win the World Cup, while Canadian fans backed France.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be held across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico, making it the largest tournament in FIFA history. It will also arrive at a time when international politics are rarely far from the headlines.

If the betting board is any indication, oddsmakers expect the storylines off the field to be nearly as compelling as the action on it.