UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Preview & Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC Lightweight title bout headlines UFC 302 as No. 4 ranked Dustin “The Diamond" Poirier takes on the champion Islam Makhachev.
- Date: Saturday, June 1, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Newark, New Jersey, United States | TV: PPV
Holland and Hussar
No. 15 ranked welterweight Kevin “Trailblazer" Holland takes another fight at middleweight, this time against Michal “Hussar" Oleksiejczuk. Holland is 2-2 over his past four fights and is looking to rebound off back-to-back losses. Oleksiejczuk is also 2-2 over his last four, entering off a loss to Michel Pereira.
Holland is three inches taller and has a huge seven-inch reach advantage. Oleksiejczuk will have the power edge, dropping opponents 1.31 times per 15 minutes. Hussar lands 0.82 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 1.07 more. Both fighters have a similar takedown rate and suspect takedown defense. However, Holland will have the submission edge.
Holland is a significant favorite at -290, but the value looks to be with him winning by submission at +270.
All Gas, No Brakes
No. 1 ranked middleweight Sean “Tarzan" Strickland faces No. 7 ranked Paulo “Borrachinha" Costa. Strickland is fresh off losing his middleweight title by a split decision with Dricus du Plessis, and he strung together three straight wins before that. Costa is 1-3 over his last four but has been fighting some top-ranked contenders.
Both fighters are six-foot-one, but Strickland has a four-inch reach advantage. Costa has the power advantage, but Strickland has constant pressure with his jab. Borrachinha is all offense, landing 6.2 significant strikes per minute but absorbing 6.38. The difference will be Strickland’s jab and pressure. It’s unlikely this fight will go to the ground.
At -250, Strickland is a sizeable favorite, but regardless of who wins, this one probably goes the distance at +140.
UFC Lightweight Championship Main Event
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
- Odds to Win: Makhachev +118 | Poirier -144
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +105 | Submission +1000 | Decision -115
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -106 | No -122
UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev defends his title against No. 4 ranked Dustin “The Diamond" Poirier. Makhachev has won 13 in a row, but his only title defenses have been back-to-back bouts against the featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Poirier is coming off an impressive knockout over Benoît Saint-Denis but was knocked out by Justin Gaethje in the fight before.
Makhachev is one inch taller, but Poirier has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Poirier will have the one-punch power edge, but Makhachev has underrated power for a fighter who is primarily a wrestler. Poirier lands 2.99 more significant strikes per minute but absorbs 3.09 more. Makhachev has a huge grappling advantage, averaging 1.84 more takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Poirier is a submission threat as well.
Makhachev is a huge favorite at -650, and although he probably wins the fight, Poirier has more than a chance at +440.
UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Card
- Holland by submission (+270)
- Strickland vs. Costa goes the distance (+140)
- Poirier to win (+440)
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